Prop Bets: Lance Gibson Jr VS King Green 2025-12-13

"Lance Gibson Jr. vs. King Green: A Grapple with Destiny (and a 65% Chance of Boring)"

The Setup:
Lance Gibson Jr. (9-1 pro, 5-1 in Bellator) steps into the Octagon as a +154 underdog, armed with grappling prowess and the legacy of his father, Lance Gibson Sr. King Green (13-12-1 UFC, 52 pro fights) enters at -192, a 38-year-old veteran on a 2-fight losing streak but still favored by the odds. The fight’s decimal lines (Green at ~1.53, Gibson at ~2.6) imply a 65% chance for Green and 38% for Gibson—numbers that scream “boring decision” more than “exciting finish.”

The Stats:
- Green’s Decline: Dropped 3 of 4 fights, including a brutal knockout loss to Mauricio Ruffy. His takedown defense? A leaky sieve (per UFC Vegas 112 analysis).
- Gibson’s Grapple Game: A Bellator vet with a 5-1 record, he’s a grappling specialist who could suffocate Green’s counter-striking style.
- Odds Implied Probabilities: Green’s -192 line = 60% implied chance; Gibson’s +154 = 38%. The remaining 2%? A prayer for a disqualification over a leg injury.

Prop Bets to Note:
- Over/Under 2.5 Rounds: Under is the consensus favorite (1.62-1.69 odds), suggesting bookmakers expect a decision. But if you’re feeling spicy, bet Over at 2.24-2.35 (42% implied) and hope Green’s age cracks under pressure.
- Spreads: Green is -3.5 (-176) on DraftKings/Bovada, while Gibson +3.5 (-183) is a safer play if you trust his grappling to force a draw.

The Verdict:
This fight is like a Netflix true-crime docuseries: “Who Cares? (Green’s Career)” vs. “The Grapple Heist (Gibson’s Bellator Resume).” Green’s veteran savvy and takedown defense (or lack thereof) give him the edge, but Gibson’s ground game could turn this into a “Wait, who won?” moment.

Prediction:
Green wins by decision, 3-0. The scorecards will read 29-28, 29-28, 29-28—because nothing says “thrilling action” like three judges agreeing on a snoozefest. But if you’re a gambler with a death wish, take Gibson +3.5 and pray for a finish.

Final Joke:
“Green’s age is his only takedown defense. Gibson’s dad would’ve choked him out for betting on this fight.”

Fight time: 10 p.m. ET (Dec. 13, 2025). Stream it if you need more reasons to question your life choices.

Created: Dec. 13, 2025, 9:57 p.m. GMT