Prop Bets: Las Vegas Aces VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-10-08
WNBA Finals Game 3 Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
The Mercury host the Aces in a must-win Game 3, and the odds are as spicy as a phoenix’s temper. Let’s break it down with math, mayhem, and a sprinkle of sarcasm.
The Spread & Total
- Moneyline: Phoenix is a slight favorite at -150 (implied probability: 60%) vs. Las Vegas at +130 (40%).
- Point Spread: Mercury -4.5 (-110) / Aces +4.5 (-110).
- Total: Over 163.5 (-110) / Under 163.5 (-110).
Why the Over?
The Mercury’s second-best playoff pace (they live to run) and the Aces’ top-10 offensive rating guarantee a popcorn-level explosion of points. Games 1 and 2 combined for 338 points. If this is a movie, it’s Airplane! meets Honey, I Shrunk the Bracket.
Player Props to Bet Your Grandma’s Wig On
1. A'ja Wilson (Aces):
- Over 24.5 points (-125): She’s scored 25+ in 6 of 10 playoff games, including 28 in Game 2. Bet her to drop 25 again—she’s basically a human points machine with a side of “I’ll take your money.”
- Over 39.5 PRA (-110): She’s a triple-double away from a triple-double.
- Kahleah Copper (Mercury):
- Over 17.5 points (-105): Dropped 21 and 23 in Games 1-2. She’s the definition of “I’ll take my points and watch you lose.”
- Satou Sabally (Aces):
- Over 17.5 points (-130): Averaged 20.5 PPG in the series. Her ankle’s “fine,” per Game 2, which means she’ll probably drop 20+ again.
- Parlay Alert:
- Copper (12+), Sabally (12+), Young (12+): The Aces’ trio went for 79 combined points in Game 2. If they’re hot, this parlay could make you richer than a Mercury player’s Instagram comments.
Why Phoenix Might Win
- Home dominance: 15-7 regular season, 1-1 in the Finals. The Mercury haven’t lost a home playoff game since… checks notes …Game 1 vs. New York.
- Defensive grit: Rank 4th in playoff eFG%, which is basically a fancy way of saying “they don’t let you win.”
Why Las Vegas Might Win
- Offensive fireworks: Scored 83+ in 5 of 6 meetings with Phoenix this season. The Aces are like a fireworks show that also happens to be your ex’s new partner.
Final Verdict
Pick: Over 163.5 (-110)
Dark Horse: Mercury -4.5
The Mercury’s home-court magic and the Aces’ scoring addiction set up a 170-point thriller. Expect A’ja Wilson to drop 27, Copper to chuck 22, and Sabally to hit 5 threes. The Aces will try to close out the series, but Phoenix will fight like a caffeinated cat in a room full of laser pointers.
Bet the Over, and maybe a parlay. And for the love of basketball, don’t bet on Sabally to hit 0.5 threes. 🏀🔥
Created: Oct. 8, 2025, 9:43 p.m. GMT