Prop Bets: Las Vegas Raiders VS Denver Broncos 2025-11-06
"Bo Nix to the Rescue: Broncos to Handcuff Raiders in a Pass-Fest (With a Side of Sacks)"
The Denver Broncos (-9.5) are here to remind the Las Vegas Raiders that their defense is about as reliable as a sieve at a water park. With the 7-2 Broncos boasting a top-5 offense (347.3 YPG) and the Raiders’ 21st-ranked pass defense (26.3 PPG allowed), this Thursday Night Football matchup is a one-way street. The Over on the total (42.5-43.0) is a lock—Denver’s QB Bo Nix has thrown 8 TDs in his last 3 games, including 4 against Dallas’ vaunted D. The Raiders? They’ve only managed 16.5 PPG and 6 sacks this season. Yikes.
Key Prop Bet Alert:
- Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-122): The AI model loves this at 4 stars, projecting 2.7 TDs. Nix’s recent form (2 TDs vs. Houston’s No. 1 defense!?) suggests he’ll easily eclipse this line. Bet it like you’re buying insurance against a Raiders comeback—because there won’t be one.
Implied Probabilities (from Moneyline):
- Broncos: 56-57% chance to win (odds: -120 to -130).
- Raiders: 20-22% chance (odds: +475 to +530). Translation: The Raiders’ odds of winning are about as likely as me understanding why anyone roots for a team that allows 26.3 PPG.
Spread Take:
Denver’s -9.5 line is basically a participation trophy for showing up. The Broncos’ D is 3rd in the league, while the Raiders’ O is 4th-worst in scoring. Even if Nix takes a dirt nap, J.K. Dobbins (1,070 yards, 5 TDs) will keep the train rolling.
Final Score Prediction:
Denver 31, Las Vegas 17. The Raiders’ defense will look as confused as a goldfish in a hurricane, and Nix will chuck 3 TDs while the Broncos’ D forces 2 turnovers.
Bonus Joke:
If the Raiders score more than 17 points, I’ll eat my hat… and then probably quit eating altogether.
Bet responsibly, and remember: the only thing being spread here is the Broncos’ dominance. 🏈
Created: Nov. 6, 2025, 6:36 p.m. GMT