Prop Bets: Las Vegas Raiders VS Indianapolis Colts 2025-10-05

Colts vs. Raiders: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Few Injuries)
The Indianapolis Colts (-7) are favored to stomp the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) in Week 5, but don’t let the Raiders’ 1-3 record fool you—this isn’t a free points giveaway. The Colts, who’ve covered 7 of their last 10 home games, are riding a 3-1 steak and have the power rating of a team that’s clearly not just here for the snacks. Meanwhile, the Raiders are dealing with a catastrophic left tackle injury (Kolton Miller, IR) and a questionable Brock Bowers, which makes their offense look like a Jenga tower after a toddler’s tantrum.

The Numbers That Make You Go "Hmm..."
- Spread: Colts -7 (decimal odds: 1.87–1.91) / Raiders +7 (1.85–2.0).
- Implied Probability: Colts have a 51.3%–53.5% chance to win per the spread, while the Raiders? A paltry 46.5%–54.3% to just stay relevant.
- Total: 47.5–48 points (Over: 1.87–1.95 / Under: 1.87–1.95). With 60% of wagers on the over, someone’s clearly betting on a shootout… or a defensive coordinator’s early retirement.

Player Props: Because Why Not?
- Geno Smith (-141) to throw an interception: At -141 odds, the implied probability is 57.9%. Let’s just say if Geno’s arm is as shaky as a toddler on a sugar rush, this could be a sure thing.
- Ashton Jeanty (-113) to score a TD: The Raiders’ RB has a 53.7% implied chance to punch it in. If he does, it’ll probably be on a 70-yard bomb after the Colts’ defense collectively forgets how to tackle.
- Jeanty’s rushing yards over 66.5 (-121): At -121, the over implies a 55.3% chance. Good luck, Ashton—your team’s offensive line is about as reliable as a chair made of Jell-O.

The Verdict:
The Colts are the safer bet, but the Raiders’ recent surge in sharp money (and the fact that 70% of bets are on Indianapolis) feels like the sportsbooks’ version of “This is fine.” [Cue image of a burning house with a “Colts -7” sign.] In the end, the Colts’ home-field advantage and the Raiders’ injury crisis make this a lopsided affair. Unless Geno decides to moonwalk into the end zone, Indy’s got this in the bag.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 31, Raiders 17 (Under 48? Don’t bet your lunch money on it.) 🏈

Created: Oct. 4, 2025, 8:35 p.m. GMT