Prop Bets: Leandro Riedi VS Kamil Majchrzak 2025-08-30
US Open Third Round Predictions: Kamil Majchrzak vs. Leandro Riedi
By The Sportswriter Who Still Owes Kamil a Hat
The Setup
Kamil Majchrzak, the Polish grinder who recently outlasted Karen Khachanov in a five-set, 4.5-hour thriller (2-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5, 7-6), is now a 2.5-set favorite (-2.5 spread) against Leandro Riedi, the 435th-ranked Swiss underdog. Majchrzak’s implied probability of victory? A tidy 62-65% (based on decimal odds of 1.61-1.67). Riedi, meanwhile, is priced at 2.21-2.30, which suggests bookmakers think he’s about as likely to win as a spectator who cheers too loud at the US Open.
Why Majchrzak Might Win
- Top-10 Tamer: His first-round win over Khachanov was his first against a top-10 opponent. If that doesn’t scream “confidence booster,” we don’t know what does.
- Steady Grind: Majchrzak’s career best is a Wimbledon quarterfinal (2023). He’s not flashy, but he’s a “I’ll-win-by-not-losing” machine.
- Hat Heist Immunity: After his cap was stolen by a fan last week, Majchrzak promised a replacement. Let’s hope the new one has anti-theft GPS.
Why Riedi Might Steal It
- Challenger Champs Streak: Riedi just won five straight Challenger titles this week. If you’ve ever seen a man who’s “due,” it’s this guy.
- Fan Ejection Expertise: Last round, Riedi had a spectator removed for shouting his name. If Majchrzak’s hat thief returns, Riedi might just say, “Ferme-la, mec” and keep playing.
- Flow State: As Riedi put it, “I’m in my flow.” Translation: He’s playing like a man who’s tired of being ranked 435th and wants to “Flow to the eighth round” (or at least to a better ATP ranking).
Key Stat to Watch
- Total Games Line: 39.5 (even money). Given Majchrzak’s marathon first round, expect a tight match that just barely exceeds this total.
Player Props?
None listed, but if you can bet on “Will Riedi yell ‘Ferme-la!’ at a fan again?” or “Does Majchrzak’s new hat have a tracking device?”—we salute you.
Final Verdict
Majchrzak’s experience and consistency make him the safer bet, but Riedi’s hot streak and “I’ll-take-anything-right-now” energy could spark an upset. If you’re feeling spicy, back Riedi at +2.5 (2.25 odds). If you’re feeling… Polish, go with the headband.
Prediction: Majchrzak in four sets. Riedi will at least make him sweat—and maybe steal another hat.
“Il a promis qu’il lui offrirait une nouvelle casquette.” We’re still waiting, Kamil. 🎩🎾
Created: Aug. 30, 2025, 11:35 a.m. GMT