Prop Bets: LG Twins VS KT Wiz 2025-09-17
Yankees vs. Twins: A Tale of Ks, HRs, and Why Jazz Chisholm Jr. Needs a Slump-Buster
September 16, 2025 — 7:40 PM ET
The New York Yankees, still reeling from a shutout loss to the Twins earlier this week, return for Round 2 with a mission: stop crying in the shower and start hitting Zebby Matthews like he owes you money. The Twins’ starter has a 5.06 ERA and a habit of giving up home runs (10 in 14 starts), while the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler has been a late-season savior with a 3.05 ERA and a knack for keeping games tidy.
Key Props & Stats to Watch
1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-110)
- Chisholm’s 0-for-7 slump is literally the setup for a 3-for-4, 2-RBI, HR performance. Why? Because Matthews has a 0.844 OPS allowed to lefties (Chisholm is LH). The math: Chisholm’s implied probability of success here is 52.4%. If he goes yard, he’ll also flirt with the 30-30 club (29 HR, 29 SB). Odds for a HR: +330. Place your bets.
- Cade Horton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
- Horton’s strikeout rate has skyrocketed from 6.48 K/9 to 8.92 K/9 this season, with a 25.9% K% over his last seven starts. His implied probability for this prop? 48.8%. At +105, this isn’t just a bet—it’s a gentleman’s agreement.
- AJ Blubaugh Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Blubaugh has struck out 9 batters in 8 scoreless innings this month, including a 28.7% K rate against righties. His implied probability here is 55.6%, and at -125, it’s the sportsbook’s way of saying, “We’re confident, but not too confident.”
Why the Yankees Should Win
Schlittler’s August dominance (2 starts vs. Twins: 2 hits, 1 run, 6 innings) and the Yankees’ recent .500 mark in Schlittler’s starts make this a pick’em. Meanwhile, Matthews has allowed 3 HRs in his last 5.2 innings vs. NYY. If Cody Bellinger (who homered off Matthews last time) keeps hitting .307, the Yankees could hit the Over on runs (7.5-8.5 implied).
Final Verdict
The Yankees (-110 on the moneyline, per context) are the smarter play here. Chisholm’s due for a bounce, Horton’s arm is a strikeout machine, and Matthews is the guy who accidentally let’s 10 HRs in a season. Bet the Under on Chisholm’s slump ending? That’s for chumps.
Place your wagers, then check back tomorrow to see if Jazz becomes a hero or if Zebby becomes a meme. 🎲⚾
Created: Sept. 17, 2025, 6:27 a.m. GMT