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Prop Bets: Los Angeles Angels VS New York Mets 2025-07-23

The New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: A Home Run-Fueled Fireworks Show (With a Side of Trauma for the Angels’ Bullpen)

Key Stats & Odds:
- Moneyline: Mets (-155) are the chalk, implying a 61% implied probability to win. Angels (+252) offer a 28.3% chance, leaving 10.7% for the "let’s just go to bed" outcome.
- Spreads: Mets are -1.5 (-115) while Angels +1.5 (-105). The line reflects the Mets’ edge, but don’t expect a laugher—this could be a slow-motion car crash with runs.
- Total: 8.5 runs (Over: -110, Under: -110). With the Angels’ bullpen having allowed an MLB-high 59 home runs in 2025, the OVER is a no-brainer. Imagine their relief pitchers as a group of overworked interns who just handed in their resignations.

Player Props to Bet Your Grandma’s Dentures On:
1. Pete Alonso (Mets) – Home Run Over 0.5 (+275):
The "Kaleidoscope Kid" has a reverse split (better vs. righties), and Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has a 1.85 ERA against left-handed batters? This is a setup for a home run. Alonso’s implied probability here is 27.5%—but with a bullpen that’s a HR buffet, he’s more likely to hit two.

1. Francisco Lindor (Mets) – Hits Over 0.5 (-200):
   The "Franchise Franchise" is a -200 favorite to get a hit. That’s a 66.7% implied chance—probably because he’s been hitting line drives into the stratosphere since 2015.

1. Brandon Nimmo (Mets) – Total Bases Over 1.5 (-150):
   With a 75% implied probability, this is as safe as a vault. Nimmo’s been a .320/.410/.650 machine lately, and the Angels’ defense? They’re playing Jenga with a fork.

Why the Mets Win (Probably):
Frankie Montas (Mets’ starter) has a 3.20 ERA and a 72% contact rate vs. fastballs, which the Angels’ lineup will try to abuse. But Kyle Hendricks (Angels’ starter) has a 1.98 ERA and a 12.3% HR/FB rate—a dangerous combo against a Mets offense that’s hit 14 HRs in his last 5 starts. The Angels’ bullpen, meanwhile, is a 59-HR sieve. This is a recipe for a Mets win via "Alonso HR + 3 Angels relievers injured from panic attacks."

Final Prediction:
Mets 5, Angels 4 (10-12 innings). Alonso homers, Lindor steals a base (just to spite the odds), and the Angels’ bullpen collectively questions their life choices. Bet the OVER 8.5 like it’s a group therapy session for run production.

“The only thing more fragile than the Angels’ bullpen is my patience for July baseball.” — Your Humorously Desperate Handicapper

Created: July 23, 2025, 5:25 a.m. GMT