Prop Bets: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Philadelphia Phillies 2025-10-04
Phillies vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Prediction: A Statistical Sausage Fest
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a clash of baseball’s most overqualified chefs: the Philadelphia Phillies (-127) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+107) are about to drop the NLDS gauntlet, and the stats are as spicy as a hot dog at a chili cookoff. Let’s break it down with the precision of a closer saving a perfect game.
The Moneyline: A Tale of Two Tomorrows
The Phillies are favored at -127, meaning you’d need to bet $127 to win $100 on Philly. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are underdogs at +107, offering a tasty $107 profit for every $100 bet. Translating to implied probabilities:
- Phillies: 100 / (127 + 100) = 44.4% chance to win.
- Dodgers: 100 / (107 + 100) = 48.8% chance to win.
Wait, what? How is the team with the better regular-season record (Dodgers: 100-62 vs. Phillies: 95-67) the underdog? Oh right, because the Phillies have a 65.1% win rate when favored by -127 or shorter. The Dodgers? They’re just… existing as underdogs, with a 52.6% win rate in similar spots.
Pitcher Props: Ohtani vs. Sanchez – The “I’m Not a Closer” Show
- Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) is projected to allow 1.5 earned runs (-161 for over, +121 for under). Given his 1.94 ERA at home and the fact that he’s basically a cyborg, the under smells like a 10-course meal.
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies) has a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 202.2 innings. Bettors can wager on him recording a win at +219. If he doesn’t, you’re getting -315 on the “no.” Spoiler: He probably will.
Hitter Props: The “I’ll Take a Walk” Era
- Trea Turner (Dodgers): Over/under on hits is 0.5. The over is -236, the under +174. Translation: Turner is so good, even the line thinks he’ll get a hit just to exist.
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Over/under on total bases is 1.5. The over is -168, under +138. Harper’s .487 SLG suggests he’ll smash this line, but let’s not jinx him into hitting a home run off Ohtani.
- Shohei Ohtani: Over/under on strikeouts allowed is 5.5. The over is -152, under +119. If you think Ohtani’s control will crumble under playoff pressure, take the over. If you’re sane, take the under.
The Total: 7.5 Runs – A Playoff Snack
The over/under is set at 7.5 runs (Over: -118, Under: -103). The Phillies have gone over in 71% of their games, the Dodgers in 76%. This is a must-buy-the-over situation, unless you enjoy watching your money evaporate like a Gatorade shower on a hot July day.
Final Verdict: “It’s Just a Game, Phil”
The Phillies’ 3.80 ERA and 9.2 K/9 staff vs. the Dodgers’ 3.96 ERA and shaky bullpen? Philly’s got the edge. But the Dodgers’ 244 home runs and 825 runs vs. Philly’s 212 HRs? That’s a fire extinguisher for your confidence.
Prediction: The game will be a low-scoring thriller (7-5 Phillies) because Ohtani will pitch like a god but the Phillies’ bats will wake up just enough to steal it. And if you bet on Trea Turner to hit over 0.5 balls, well… you’re paying for the experience.
“Playoff baseball: where $127 buys you a root beer and a prayer.” 🍺⚾
Created: Oct. 3, 2025, 3:46 a.m. GMT