Prop Bets: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-09-04

The Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: A Strikeout Symphony
Date: September 4, 2025 | Time: 8:40 PM ET | Venue: PNC Park

The Setup:
The Pittsburgh Pirates, a team so bad at making contact they could bench-press a toddler’s punch, host the Los Angeles Dodgers, who’ve mastered the art of "Shohei Ohtani + 11 other guys who don’t swing at anything." The key prop bet? Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125) on FanDuel. Snell’s got a 2.41 ERA, a 3.59 FIP, and a whiff rate that makes you question if his fastball is secretly a curveball. The Pirates’ lineup? A collective .288 wRC+ and a team OBP that’s basically a rounding error.

Why the Over on Snell?
Snell’s not just pitching; he’s performing a one-man stand-up comedy routine with his sinker. Opponents are making contact at a 68% rate—against him, it’s 52%. The Pirates’ team OBP is .285, and their strikeout rate? A staggering 25%. Snell’s season average is 8.2 Ks per game. The Over 6.5 (-125) isn’t a bet—it’s a certainty.

The Pirates’ Offense:
They’re the only team that could go 0-for-12 with 8 Ks and still call it a “productive” night. Their team slugging percentage (.345) is lower than my grandma’s approval of modern music.

The Dodgers’ Offense:
They’ll probably score 5 runs, but half will be via errors. Trea Turner’s got a .320 OBP, but that’s just because he’s been walking more than swinging.

Implied Probabilities:
- Snell Over 6.5 Ks: 100/(100+125) = 44.4% (He’s averaged 8.2 Ks/game).
- Pittsburgh Win: Moneyline is +205 (47.6% implied). That’s about the same chance I have of understanding why they drafted Alexander Canario.

Final Prediction:
The Pirates will strike out 12 times, the Dodgers will win 4-1, and Snell will fan 8—because even a 6.5 Over is too conservative. Bet the Over on strikeouts, and maybe don’t bet on the game itself unless you enjoy financial therapy.

Prop Pick:
Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125) — Because watching the Pirates chase 75% of Snell’s pitches is like a horror movie for your soul.

Note: This prediction is 80% math, 20% sarcasm, and 0% sympathy for Pirates fans. 🐙⚾

Created: Sept. 4, 2025, 2:55 p.m. GMT