Prop Bets: Maria Sakkari VS Beatriz Haddad Maia 2025-08-30
Prediction: Bia Haddad Maia vs. Maria Sakkari – The "Unbeatable" Underdog
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a tennis version of The Godfather Part III—a beloved legacy vs. a plot twist no one saw coming. Bia Haddad Maia, the 22nd-ranked Brazilian sorceress of the court, enters this third-round US Open clash with a 4-0 head-to-head record against Maria Sakkari. Yes, you read that right: four wins, zero losses. The Greek titan Sakkari is favored by bookmakers, but Bia’s odds (2.25-2.40) suggest bookies are still paying for therapy after this rivalry began.
The Stats That Make You Go "Hmm"
- Head-to-Head: Bia’s 4-0 dominance includes wins in Madrid (2024), Miami (2022), and a 2014 ITF final. Sakkari’s resume? A string of "almost, but not quite" against the Brazilian.
- Implied Probabilities: Sakkari’s implied win chance hovers around 62% (odds: 1.61-1.62), while Bia’s sits at ~44%. Translation: Bookies think Sakkari’s got this… but history says otherwise.
- Totals Prop: The "Under 22.5 games" line is favored (odds: 1.76-1.91), likely due to Bia’s tendency to end matches swiftly. Her last four wins against Sakkari averaged just 20 games per match.
Why Bia Could Win (Again)
Sakkari is a powerhouse, but Bia’s recent US Open form is chef’s kiss. Last year, she nearly toppled Karolina Muchova in the quarters, and in 2023, she battled Iga Świątek to a semifinal thriller. Meanwhile, Sakkari’s "overconfidence" (read: four straight losses) might trip her up.
Prop Bets to Consider
- Moneyline: Bet on Bia at 2.25-2.40. If she wins, your $10 becomes $21.80 (per Betano’s offer).
- Totals: Take the Under 22.5 games at 1.76-1.91. Bia’s aggressive playstyle and Sakkari’s recent struggles suggest a quick two-set verdict.
- Spreads: Bia’s +2.5 line (odds: 1.88-1.91) is a sneaky pick. Even if Sakkari wins, Bia could cover the spread.
Final Verdict
This isn’t a "pick me" scenario—it’s a "pick Bia" scenario. The odds are confused; the head-to-head is clear. Sakkari’s favorite status is a plot hole in a movie that’s already been written. Bia’s next chapter? Another win, another "I told you so," and another trip to the fourth round.
Prediction: Bia Haddad Maia in two sets. The underdog? She’s not. The favorite? That’s just the bookies’ mistake.
Stream the chaos on ESPN/Disney+ and bet wisely—unless you’re Sakkari. Then just… enjoy the ride. 🎾🔥
Created: Aug. 30, 2025, 5:16 p.m. GMT