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Prop Bets: Max Holloway VS Dustin Poirier 2025-07-20

UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier – A Stand-and-Laugh Special

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for The Golden Brawl! Max Holloway (-138) and Dustin Poirier (+112) are set to collide in what’s being billed as Poirier’s swan song. Let’s break this down with the precision of a UFC octagon ref:

The Stats & Stakes
- Holloway’s Edge: The 33-year-old “Blessed” is a -138 favorite (implied probability: 58.7%), reflecting bookmakers’ faith in his striking prowess and 2019 five-round war with Poirier.
- Poirier’s Hail-Mary: The 36-year-old “Dirty Bird” is a +112 underdog (47.3%), chasing glory in his final fight. His KO/TKO prop is a laughable +340 (2.86% implied), but hey, every underdog dreams of a cinematic exit.
- Method of Victory: Holloway’s decision win (+170) is the shrewd bet, while Poirier’s KO/TKO (+340) is a lottery ticket for those with a death wish.

Prop Bets to Ponder
- Total Rounds Over/Under 4.5: Over is -152 (62.7% implied), Under is +120 (45.5% implied). Given their 2019 fight went five rounds, expect this to trend “Over” as they trade jabs like holiday gifts.
- Round Spreads: DraftKings has Holloway -5.5 (-510) and Poirier +5.5 (+410). Realistic? No. Entertaining? Absolutely.

The Verdict
This will be a stand-and-bang affair, per Deadspin’s analysis, with Holloway likely stealing it via decision. Poirier’s heart is commendable, but his legs? Not so much.

Prediction: Holloway wins via unanimous decision (30-27 x3), with the fight lasting all five rounds (Over 4.5 rounds). Bet the Under on Poirier’s KO/TKO if you enjoy financial therapy.

As for Dustin’s retirement speech? Expect it to include at least three expletives and a heartfelt thank you to his mom. Stay classy, cage warriors. 🥊

Created: July 20, 2025, 2:38 a.m. GMT