Prop Bets: Miami Marlins VS New York Mets 2025-08-28
Mets vs. Marlins: A Statistical Slapstick Show
The New York Mets (-220 moneyline favorite) are about to make the Miami Marlins feel like they’ve been hit by a bus… and that bus is named Clay Holmes. With a 58.2% implied probability to win (based on their moneyline odds), the Mets are the statistical equivalent of a vending machine: reliable, profitable, and utterly unexciting to bet against.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Unless They’re the Marlins’ Stats)
- Mets Offense: The Mets’ .786 OPS since the All-Star break is like a luxury yacht compared to the Marlins’ .707—literally a sinking ship. Juan Soto’s 6 HRs in August? That’s not a prop bet; it’s a guarantee. Take Soto O/0.5 HR (-310) and call me in the morning.
- Clay Holmes: The Mets’ starter has allowed ≤2 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. Bet Holmes O/4.5 K (-170) and watch him dominate the Marlins’ anemic lineup.
- Marlins’ Hopes: Janson Junk (6-2 record) will face a Mets staff with a 3.83 ERA. Good luck, Janson. The implied probability of the Marlins winning? A laughable 24.4%.
Prop Bets to Steal the Show
- Juan Soto HR: At -310, it’s cheaper than a subway ride. He’s hitting a home run like it’s a free throw.
- Francisco Lindor 2B: At -280, Lindor’s doubles are as dependable as a New York cab.
- Clay Holmes Outs: Take Holmes O/16.5 innings (-125). He’ll pitch like he’s been here before.
The Verdict
The Mets are -1.5 run spread favorites for a reason. The Marlins’ 20th-ranked offense (by wRC+) will struggle to score enough runs to fill a hot dog stand. Take Mets -1.5 (-125) and enjoy the Marlins’ inevitable 4-10 loss.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 6, Marlins 2. The only thing hotter than Soto’s bat? The Mets’ collective disdain for this matchup.
Bet responsibly. Or don’t—this is Miami. You’ll just be buying drinks anyway. 🍹⚾
Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 8:41 p.m. GMT