Prop Bets: Milwaukee Brewers VS Los Angeles Dodgers 2025-07-18
Brewers vs. Dodgers: A Tale of Two Pitchers and One Overachieving Bullpen
The Milwaukee Brewers (8-10 in their last 18) face the Los Angeles Dodgers (3-7 in their last 10) in a clash of contrasting narratives. The Brewers’ Quinn Priester (7-2, 3.55 ERA) takes the mound against the resurgent Tyler Glasnow (returning from injury, 4.20 ERA in 2025). But here’s the twist: Priester’s 3.55 ERA might be a mirage, and Glasnow’s comeback could hinge on dodging Ohtani’s wrath.
Key Stats & Props to Watch:
- Shohei Ohtani’s Total Bases Over 1.5 (-135): The two-way menace has 32 HRs and a 168 wRC+ this season. Bet him to eclipse 2+ total bases against Priester’s right-handed sinker.
- Christian Yelich’s Doubles Over 0.5 (-550): The Brewers’ leadoff man (.259, 19 HRs) is a doubles machine; Priester’s 1.88 HR/9 rate makes this a lock.
- Run Line Pick: Take the Brewers +1.5 (-110) to exploit Glasnow’s 5.40 BB/9 and the Brewers’ 4.25 team ERA.
Why the Brewers Might Win:
Their bullpen has a 2.53 ERA in August, and Priester’s 5.3% HR/FB rate suggests regression is coming. Bet the Under 8.5 Runs (-105)—Glasnow’s 4.12 FIP vs. LHH and Priester’s 4.85 FIP vs. RHH could limit fireworks.
Why the Dodgers Might Win:
Ohtani’s 168 wRC+ and 32 HRs make him a must-play. Take the Dodgers -1.5 (-110) if you trust Glasnow to contain Jackson Chourio’s 11-game hit streak.
Final Verdict:
This is a coin flip, but the Brewers’ bullpen and Priester’s regression potential give them a 42% implied chance (based on +150 moneyline). However, Ohtani’s total bases prop is a no-brainer. Bet the Over 8.5 Runs (+100) just in case—because when Ohtani’s involved, chaos is inevitable.
Prop Pick: Shohei Ohtani Total Bases Over 1.5 (-135).
Game Prediction: Under 8.5 Runs (-105).
Note: If Priester strikes out 5+ batters, immediately bet the Over. Nothing says “I’ve got this” like a pitcher’s ERA plummeting after 5 Ks… and then giving up a walk-off HR. 🎩⚾
Created: July 18, 2025, 10:37 p.m. GMT