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Prop Bets: Minnesota Lynx VS Golden State Valkyries 2025-09-06

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"The Lynx Roar, the Valkyries Swoop: A Prop-Filled Showdown in San Francisco"

The Minnesota Lynx (32-9) roll into San Francisco as 7-point favorites against the Golden State Valkyries (23-18), but don’t count out a team that’s gone 9-4 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Lynx have the higher implied win probability (76%) per the moneyline, but the Valkyries’ home-court magic and Napheesa Collier’s recent scoring slump might make this a closer call than the odds suggest. Let’s dig into the numbers—and the props—because even a playoff-clinching Lynx squad can’t escape the chaos of a 155-point total.

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Key Stats & Odds
- Spread: Lynx -6.5 (-110) / Valkyries +6.5 (-110)
- Total: 155.0 (Even money)
- Moneyline: Lynx -316 / Valkyries +251
- Implied Win Probability: Lynx 76%, Valkyries 28.5%

The Lynx’s 161.6 PPG average vs. the Valkyries’ 158.0? The total feels way too low. These teams have combined for 11.1 points OVER their average in matchups this season. Take the OVER 155.0 (-110) like it’s a free layup.

Player Props to Steal
1. Napheesa Collier O/U 21.5 Points (-106)
The MVP candidate is averaging 23.5 points in two games against Minnesota this year, but she’s scored under 22 in three of her last four. With the Lynx’s defense ranked 6th in the league, this feels like a “buy low” spot for the under.

  1. Veronica Burton O/U 7.5 Assists (-138)
    Burton dished out 5 dimes in her last win but has eclipsed 7.5 assists in five of six games. Her -138 line is a steal for a player who thrives in the home arena.

  1. Collier Double-Double (+185)
    She’s pulled this off 12 times this season, but her 7.5 rebound average vs. the Lynx’s elite rim protection (4th in defensive rebounding) makes this a dicey prop.

The Verdict
The Lynx are the better team, but the Valkyries have turned Chase Center into a spread-beating fortress. Take Valkyries +6.5 (-110) for the upset, and throw in Burton’s assist over for a parlay. As for Collier? Let’s hope she doesn’t go 0-for-her-shots and 0-for-her-assists—again.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 82, Golden State 76 (because math, and also because Lynx > Valkyries).

Place your bets, but don’t blame me when Burton racks up 8 assists and Collier drops 22. It’s all in the data. đŸ†đŸ”„

Created: Sept. 6, 2025, 9:08 p.m. GMT