Prop Bets: Minnesota Lynx VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-09-28
WNBA Semifinals Game 4 Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx are 4.5-point underdogs, and their star Napheesa Collier is injured. Their coach, Cheryl Reeve, is suspended for yelling at referees. Meanwhile, the Mercury are here to play defense and probably sip iced tea while doing it. Let’s break this down with math, mockery, and a sprinkle of player props.
Key Stats & Odds
- Spread: Phoenix -4.5 (-110), Minnesota +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Under 155.5 (-112) is the recommended bet. Why? The Lynx’s offense crumbled to 79.5 PPG without Collier, and the Mercury’s defense is a leaky sieve that somehow only leaks 95 PPG. Game 3’s 160 combined points were an outlier; this should be a defensive snoozefest.
- Implied Probabilities:
- Phoenix ML (-150): 60% win chance (per implied probability).
- Minnesota ML (+264): 27% win chance.
- Under 155.5 total: 50% implied (thanks to the -112 juice).
Why the Mercury Should Win
The Lynx are like a smartphone without Wi-Fi: functional, but not great. Without Collier (their 20.3 PPG scorer), they’re 7-4 but averaging 10 fewer points per game. Phoenix’s Kelsey Williams has stepped up, scoring 18+ in three straight games. The Mercury’s defense? Top-5 in the league. This is a grind-it-out game where turnovers and free throws decide the winner.
Why the Lynx Might Shock Us
Cheryl Reeve’s suspension is like getting benched for yelling at the umpire—unfair, but not exactly a game-changer. The Lynx have a 20-2 home record, but this is Game 4 in Phoenix. Still, their resilience without Collier (7-4 record) proves they’re not all-star-dependent… yet.
Player Props to Bet (or Avoid)
1. Kahleah Copper Over 15.5 Points (+100): She’s been a beast against the Lynx this season. Bet her to carry Phoenix’s offense.
2. Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists (-135): She’s their floor general; 9 dimes would make this bet look like a free snack.
3. Courtney Williams Under 5.5 Assists (-140): Her assist numbers dipped in recent games; don’t expect a triple-double party.
Final Prediction
Phoenix Mercury 68, Minnesota Lynx 62
The Lynx will miss Collier like a toddler misses a security blanket. Phoenix’s defense will smother them, and Williams will drop 20 points to keep the party going. The UNDER 155.5 is a lock—this game will be so low-scoring, the crowd will start a conga line just for something to do.
And to the Lynx: Good luck coaching without your star and your coach. Maybe next time, just bring a megaphone and a therapist. 🏀☕
Created: Sept. 28, 2025, 9:45 p.m. GMT