Prop Bets: Morgan Charriere VS Melquizael Costa 2025-12-13
UFC on ESPN 73: Charriere vs. Costa – A War of Wits (and Kicks)
The Odds:
Melquizael Costa (-118) is the slight favorite, while Morgan Charriere (-104) has surged in public betting. Converting to implied probabilities:
- Costa: ~55% (1.65 decimal odds)
- Charriere: ~43% (2.35 decimal odds)
The Stats:
- Costa: 4-fight win streak, including a Fight of the Night TKO over Julian Erosa. A southpaw with elite grappling (66% takedown accuracy per stats) and a 72% strike defense rating.
- Charriere: 3-2 in the UFC, with a 100% knockout rate in his last two wins (including a brutal TKO of Nate Landwehr). Known for his “French fry” counterhooks and 58% takedown defense.
Prop Bets to Note:
- Over/Under 2.5 rounds: Over is priced at 1.45–1.50 (implied ~57% chance), while Under is 2.60–2.74 (~28% chance). Given both fighters’ durability and Charriere’s explosive KO potential, over might be the safer bet—unless Costa’s grappling locks in a quick finish.
The Prediction:
This is a battle of the “French Fry” vs. the “Brazilian Bear Hug.” Costa’s grappling and southpaw kicks give him a technical edge, but Charriere’s counterpunching and recent form (TKO bounce-back) make him a dangerous underdog.
Final Verdict:
Costa’s superior defense and takedown game should edge out Charriere’s power, but don’t be surprised if Charriere’s “French fry” hooks land a highlight-reel finish. For the prop bets, over 2.5 rounds is a smart play—this one’s going the distance, and maybe even longer.
“The only thing more precise than Charriere’s boxing is his French accent. The only thing more relentless than Costa’s takedowns is his Spotify playlist. Let’s get ready to rumble… in French.” 🥊🇫🇷🇧🇷
Created: Dec. 13, 2025, 10:02 p.m. GMT