Prop Bets: New Mexico State Aggies VS Liberty Flames 2025-10-14
Humorous Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames
Where a 10-point spread meets a defensive showdown, and the model’s got a 56% smirk on its face.
The Spread: Liberty is a 10-point favorite (most books have them at -10.5, some at -10). The Aggies are +10.5 underdogs, which is about as exciting for them as a desert tortoise at a sprinkler party. Liberty’s 56% chance to cover? That’s basically the model saying, “Yeah, this is happening.”
The Total: The line hovers between 47.5 and 48.5, but SportsLine’s model thinks this’ll blow the roof off with 58 combined points. Take the Over if you believe in chaos; take the Under if you’ve seen New Mexico State’s anemic rushing attack (50.6 yards/game—yes, really).
Why Liberty’s Likely to Win:
- Rushing Mayhem: The Flames average 166 yards/gamE, led by Evan Dickens (344 yards, 2 TDs) and Caden Williams (246 yards). New Mexico State’s defense is last in rushing D (1.86 YPA). Translation: Ground-and-pound time.
- QB Struggles: Aggies QB Logan Fife ranks last in PFF offensive grade (29.5) under pressure. Liberty’s pass rush (hello, Joe Strickland and Bryce Dixon) just had more sacks vs. UTEP than in their previous four games combined. Oof.
Why New Mexico State Won’t Quit:
- Air Attack: QB Fife throws for 13.9 yards per completion (decent!), and WR Donovan Faupel (312 yards) might make a highlight-reel grab. But against a Liberty D that’s forcing turnovers (see: UTEP game), it’s a long shot.
- Road Curse: The Aggies are 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Their best hope? Maybe hoping Ethan Vasko (Liberty’s QB) fumbles a snap and they return it for a TD. Stranger things have happened… in a weird game.
Player Props to Note (From Context):
- Evan Dickens (Liberty RB): Over/Under on rushing yards? Bet the farm.
- Logan Fife (NMSU QB): Under on sacks taken (+500 at some books).
Final Verdict: Liberty wins outright, likely by double digits. The Over might hit if Ethan Vasko decides to play Russell Wilson and air it out. But if the Aggies’ offense stays stuck in neutral? Under 48.5 it is.
Model’s Edge: With a 56% cover rate in simulations and a 63% win rate as a home favorite, Liberty’s “snapped four-game losing streak” momentum is real. New Mexico State? They’re the “gotta win to stay relevant” team. But tonight? Flames to flame out the Aggies.
Bet the Over if you’re feeling lucky. Or just take Liberty -10.5 and call it a night. The model’s not wrong. 🔥
Created: Oct. 14, 2025, 7:38 p.m. GMT