Prop Bets: New York Jets VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025-09-21

"Jets vs. Bucs: The Tyrod Taylor Experience Meets Baker Mayfield’s ‘Mystery Meat’ QB Rating"

The New York Jets (0-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) collide in Week 3, and if you thought this matchup was a snoozefest, the odds agree—the Under 43.5 total is the consensus darling, with bookmakers like DraftKings (-115 for the Under) and BetRivers (-112) implying a drowsy 43.5-point script. After all, the Jets’ defense blitzes like a caffeinated hyena (38.9% blitz rate in 2024), and Tampa’s run defense ranks 2nd in rush EPA. Translation: Breece Hall’s 4.7 YPC average might hit a brick wall.

The Numbers Game
- Moneyline: Bucs are -350 (67.6% implied probability) at Caesars; Jets are +260 (27.8%).
- Spread: Bucs -6.5 (-110) vs. Jets +6.5 (-110). The Jets’ only path to relevance? Hope Tyrod Taylor (1,000-yard QB in 2021) outduels Baker Mayfield, who’s averaging a pedestrian 5.5 YPA.
- Totals: Under 43.5 (-115) is the safest bet, per DraftKings.

Prop Bets to Steal Your Cash
1. Mike Evans Anytime TD: The Bucs’ WR hasn’t scored yet in 2025, but with a 15.2% touchdown rate over his last 10 games vs. middle-of-the-road Jets secondary, this +200 prop is a “meh.”
2. Breece Hall Under 65 Rushing Yards: Tampa’s D allows 3.3 YPC. Hall’s 4.7 YPC? Under 65 (-120) is a no-brainer.

Why the Bucs Are Favored (But Not by Much)
Mayfield’s 80-yard game-winning drive in Week 2 is a highlight-reel flex, but his 5.5 YPA is worse than a toddler on a tricycle. Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense? It’s Tyrod Taylor (2,000-yard QB in 2020) vs. a Bucs defense that’s allowed 24.5 PPG over two games. This is the NFL version of a tie game, with a 6.5-point spread that’ll have bettors spitting out their beer.

Final Verdict
Take the Jets +6.5 if you enjoy watching hope triumph over competence. Otherwise, Under 43.5 is your safest bet—because neither offense looks ready to light up the scoreboard. And if you must bet on props, skip Mike Evans’ TD (+200) and grab Breece Hall Under 65 rushing yards (-120). The math doesn’t lie: Tampa’s run D is a fortress, and Hall’s legs are about to hit a wall.

“The only thing more certain than Baker Mayfield’s interceptions is the Jets’ fourth-quarter comeback… in the “how to lose” manual.” 🏈📉

Created: Sept. 21, 2025, 4:44 p.m. GMT