Prop Bets: New York Liberty VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-09-19

Phoenix's Path to Victory or Liberty's Last Stand?

The WNBA playoffs have served up a do-or-die Game 3 between the Phoenix Mercury (-150) and New York Liberty (+250), with the Mercury favored to close out the series. Let’s break this down with the precision of a coach’s halftime speech and the humor of a fan who’s had one too many Gatorades.

Key Stats & Odds:
- Phoenix won Game 1 86-60 and owns a 4-2 regular-season edge over New York.
- New York clawed back with a 76-69 OT win in Game 2, but Breanna Stewart (13.5-point prop) is playing through a sprained MCL.
- Implied probabilities: Phoenix has a 60% chance to win per the odds, while New York’s 29% relies on Stewart’s magic and hope.

Why Bet the UNDER 155.5 Total Points?
The first two games combined for 145 and 146 points, and both teams rank in the WNBA’s top half in defensive efficiency. With the UNDER 155.5 (-110) line, bettors are banking on a gritty, defensive showdown. The Liberty are 25-18-1 to the UNDER this season—proof that “clutch and luck” isn’t just a slogan.

Player Props to Ponder:
- Satou Sabally (Liberty): Over 5.5 rebounds (-125). The German rebounding machine has grabbed 8, 7, and 5.5 boards in her last three games. Bet her to out-rebound the entire Mercury bench.
- Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): Over 15.5 points (-105). The former All-Star is averaging 14.5 PPG in the series and has the Liberty’s defense on life support.
- Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): Under 17.5 points (-125). With Phoenix’s defense focused on Stewart, Ionescu’s 12.5 PPG average might crater.

The Verdict:
Phoenix’s home-court advantage and New York’s injury woes make the Mercury a -3.0 spread favorite. But don’t count out the Liberty—Stewart’s MCL could turn this into a “Miracle on 9thth Ave.” Still, the math says Phoenix in 3. Unless Stewart drops 30 while one-handed, this series is over.

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix 78, New York 67.
Prop Pick: Sabally Over 5.5 Rebounds. Because glass dominance = WNBA glory. �asketball

Created: Sept. 19, 2025, 3:03 p.m. GMT