Prop Bets: New York Liberty VS Seattle Storm 2025-09-05
Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty WNBA Prediction: A "Stormy" Outlook for the Liberty
The New York Liberty, fresh off a two-game losing streak and a road record that’s worse than a vegan at a barbecue (8-12), will face the Seattle Storm, who are clinging to playoff hopes like a toddler to a ice cream cone. The Storm are favored at -125 on the moneyline (implied probability: 57.1%), while the Liberty are +200 underdogs (implied probability: 33.3%). With Seattle’s +4.8 net rating vs. New York’s -1.6, this isn’t exactly a “pick ’em” scenario—it’s more like “pick the Storm and go home.”
Key Stats to Know:
- The Liberty’s offense is sputtering: Nyara Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu are questionable, and Natasha Cloud has averaged 5.2 assists per game but has hit her assist prop just 10% of the time (9/10 games under 5.5).
- Seattle’s defense is a fortress: 5th in defensive rating, 5th in opponent assists per game, and 6th in opponent FG%. Last meeting? Cloud had 1 assist. Oof.
- The Storm’s playoff push is desperate: They’re 2 games behind the 8th seed and need a win at home, where they’re a dismal 9-13. Meanwhile, the Liberty are 16-5 at home but look like a 16-5 travel team on the road.
Player Props to Bet (or Avoid):
- Nneka Ogwumike (Storm): Over 17.5 points is a -120 favorite. With her 18.3 PPG average and the Liberty’s porous defense, she’s a lock to eclipse this line.
- Natasha Cloud (Liberty): Over 10.5 points is a +100 underdog. With Ionescu sidelined and Cloud’s assist numbers in the toilet, this feels like a Hail Mary—literally and figuratively.
- Skylar Diggins-Smith (Storm): Over/under 5.5 assists is set at -115/-115. Given her 5.5apg average and the Storm’s ball movement, this is a coin flip.
Prediction:
The Storm will win this one 82-75, buoyed by Ogwumike’s 20+ points and a defensive performance that’ll make the Liberty’s offense feel like it’s playing through a hurricane. As for Cloud? She’ll likely finish with 8 points, 3 assists, and a stat line so anemic it’ll make her +100 prop bet look like a $100 bill in a hurricane.
Final Score Prediction: Seattle Storm 82, New York Liberty 75.
Bet the Storm moneyline (-125) and fade Cloud’s points prop. The only thing "liberating" about this game is the Storm’s playoff chances. 🌪
Created: Sept. 5, 2025, 6:50 p.m. GMT