Prop Bets: New York Mets VS Detroit Tigers 2025-09-01
Mets vs. Tigers: A Slugger’s Showdown or a Pitcher’s Purgatory?
The New York Mets (-205) and Detroit Tigers (+190) collide in a game that’s less about pitching and more about who can hit the ball out of the park first, second, third… you get the idea. With Juan Soto (35 HRs) and Riley Greene (32 HRs) leading the charge, this is a match made in HR derby heaven. The moneyline implies the Mets have a 68% chance to win (based on -205 odds), but Detroit’s 79-58 record and home-field advantage might just let them roar like a Tigers’ mascot on Red Bull.
Why the Mets Should Win (But Probably Won’t):
- Sean Manaea (5.01 ERA) isn’t Cy Young material, but the Tigers’ .250 team average isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row.
- The Mets’ .336 OBP (Lindor!) and 188 HRs suggest they’ll milk every freebie for extra bases.
- Pete Alonso’s “over 0.5 doubles” prop is -110 (a near-lock, per the odds), because Alonso’s a one-man doubles machine with a side of HRs.
Why the Tigers Should Win (And Maybe Will):
- Charlie Morton (9-10, 4.50 ERA) might finally get his 10th win, assuming the Tigers’ lineup doesn’t go .260 BA and 174 HRs into a sudden slump.
- Gleyber Torres’ “over 1.5 RBIs” prop is -195, because Detroit’s offense runs on his 101 RBI legs (and a .262 BA).
- The Tigers’ 70-over-the-total games this season? That’s 51% of their games going nuclear. The 8.5-run total here? Take the over like it’s a free hot dog.
Prop Bets to Steal While No One’s Looking:
1. Juan Soto Over 0.5 HRs (+330): He’s 7th in HRs, and Detroit’s park isn’t a pitcher’s paradise. Soto’s implied probability here is 24%—but with a 35-HR season, why bet against a man who’s basically a human HR ticker?
2. Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118): Manaea’s 53 Ks in 41 IP = 1.27 Ks per game. 5.5 Ks? That’s 4.5 Ks more than usual. But hey, the Tigers hit like a group project. Take the over for chaos.
3. Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (-175): Alonso’s .27 SLG and 31 HRs mean this is a -175 favorite for a reason. He’s basically a guarantee to mash.
Final Verdict:
This game is a home-run-happy, RBI-spree, doubles-dropping circus. The Mets’ edge in the moneyline is thin (68% implied win probability vs. Tigers’ 32%), but Detroit’s 70-over-the-total history and Soto/Greene’s power make the over 8.5 runs a no-brainer. And if you’re feeling spicy, back Alonso to double and Soto to HR like they’re playing a video game.
Prediction: Tigers 7, Mets 6 in 10 innings. Because nothing says “September baseball” like a rain delay, a walk-off, and a forgotten prop bet. �衮
Created: Sept. 1, 2025, 3:28 a.m. GMT