Prop Bets: New York Mets VS Detroit Tigers 2025-09-03

"Mets vs. Tigers: A Home Run Derby or a Pitcher’s Duel? Let’s Bet on the Absurd!"

The New York Mets (-115) and Detroit Tigers (+104) clash in a September showdown where the only thing more volatile than the weather in Detroit is the lineup of injured Mets players. With Francisco Álvarez and nine others on the IL, the Mets are playing 2025’s version of “Where’s Waldo?”—except the missing players are more likely in a hospital than a striped sweater.

Key Stats & Implied Probabilities:
- Moneyline: Mets win 52.3% (implied), Tigers 47.7%.
- Total: Over 8.5 runs (-110) has a 52.3% implied chance; under 47.7%.
- Starters: Clay Holmes (3.60 ERA, 111 Ks) vs. Casey Mize (4.32 ERA). Both pitchers have Over 3.5 Ks props at -145, because strikeouts are the only thing more certain than a Tigers loss when they’re the underdog (-46.3% win rate as underdogs).

Player Props Worth Your Hard-Earned Cash:
1. Juan Soto (Mets): Over 0.5 HR at +280. Bet like your job depends on it—because if Soto hits a bomb, your boss will definitely hear about it.
2. Pete Alonso: Over 0.5 HR at +320. The “Big Fella” needs just one more HR to join the 2025 Home Run Hall of Fame (i.e., a Twitter account).
3. Riley Greene (Tigers): Over 0.5 HR at +390. If Greene doesn’t go deep, maybe he’ll start a side hustle as a “non-home run hitter” for the MLB’s anti-hero league.
4. Francisco Lindor: Over 1.5 Total Bases at -115. Bet the Under if you believe in “baseball yoga”—Lindor’s got the balance, but not the power.

Why the Mets Should Win (But Probably Won’t):
The Mets’ 4.8 runs/game average vs. the Tigers’ 3.8? Check. Juan Soto’s .257 average with 36 HRs? Check. And let’s not forget the Tigers’ starting pitcher, Casey Mize, who’s allowed 4.32 ERas—about as effective as a sieve in a hurricane.

Why the Tigers Might Shock Us (But Probably Won’t):
Riley Greene’s 32 HRs and the Over 8.5 total? The Tigers could theoretically win if the Mets’ bullpen implodes. But with Mets’ relievers Clay Holmes (3.60 ERA) on the mound, it’s like asking a vegan to cook a steak dinner—possible, but not pretty.

Final Verdict:
Take the Over 8.5 runs (-110). With Soto, Alonso, and Greene all chasing stats, this game will either be a fireworks show or a mercy rule. And if you’re feeling really spicy, back Soto to hit a HR (+280)—because nothing says “September magic” like a 430-foot moonshot.

Bonus Prop Bet:
Francisco Lindor to steal a base at +320. Because nothing says “I’ve got your number” like watching Lindor attempt to steal second and get caught looking like a confused penguin.

Play it safe, or play it funny. Either way, the Tigers’ bullpen will need a therapist. 🎲⚾

Created: Sept. 3, 2025, 7:14 a.m. GMT