Prop Bets: New York Mets VS Kansas City Royals 2025-07-11
Mets vs. Royals: A Tale of Two Batting Averages (And Why the Royals Should Pack a Snack)
The Setup
The New York Mets (53-40) roll into Kansas City to face the Royals (46-48) in a mismatch that’s as clear as a neon sign at a Dodger Stadium hot dog stand. The Mets, averaging 4.4 runs per game (14th in MLB), are favored by a mile over the Royals, who score 3.4 runs per game—good enough to rank 28th. That’s not a typo, that’s a cry for help.
The Pitcher Showdown
Kodai Senga (-136 implied probability) vs. Michael Wacha (-134 implied). Both are projected to strike out 4.5 batters, but Senga’s underdog line (-136) suggests bookmakers trust his arm more. Wacha’s over/under on strikeouts (+104) is tempting if you’re feeling lucky. But let’s be real: the real drama is the Mets’ offense vs. Wacha’s ERA (4.52) and the Royals’ offense vs. Senga’s 3.82 ERA.
Why the Mets Win
- Moneyline Magic: The Mets are 42-23 as favorites this season. They’re not just favored; they’re comfortably favored, like a Netflix password shared with your sister.
- Run Line: Take the Mets -1.5 (+140 avg.) because the Royals’ offense is about as explosive as a wet sock. Their 3.4 R/G is worse than the 2024 Tigers, and that’s saying something.
- Total Under 9.5: With the Royals’ bats likely to nap and the Mets’ offense not exactly the 1998 Yankees, this game could be a pitcher’s duel. Lay the -110 to -120 line on the under.
Prop Bets to Steal (Like a Base)
1. Juan Soto (-270) to get 0.5 hits: He’s a machine. The money’s steep, but Soto’s .312 average makes this a no-brainer.
2. Pete Alonso (-310) to get 0.5 hits: The Long Ball King might not even need to swing.
3. Bobby Witt Jr. (Over 0.5 doubles, +300): He’s a threat to go deep, but a double? That’s just mean.
4. Wacha’s Strikeouts (Under 4.5, -134): With the Mets’ lineup, Wacha’s likely to look like a one-man strikeout prevention unit.
The Verdict
The Mets win 5-2. Senga pitches into the 7th, Soto racks up 3 RBIs, and the Royals’ offense collectively forgets how to swing. Witt Jr. steals second base to keep the game “exciting,” but it’s still a footnote in a Mets victory.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 5, Royals 2
Why Trust Me? Because the Royals’ offense is so quiet, they’ll probably ask for a mic check. 🎤⚾
Odds as of July 11, 2025. Implied probabilities calculated using American odds. No snacks were harmed in the making of this prediction.
Created: July 11, 2025, 6:47 a.m. GMT