Prop Bets: New York Mets VS Washington Nationals 2025-08-21
Mets vs. Nationals: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Few Prop Bets to Spice It Up)
The New York Mets (-140) are favored to stomp the Washington Nationals (+118) on Thursday, and honestly, it’s not even close. The Mets are 67-58 overall and have a 59.8% win rate when they’re the favorite—so they’ve basically turned “favorite” into a full-time job. The Nationals, meanwhile, are 50-75 and have the energy of a team that forgot to charge their bats. They’re just here to… exist.
Why the Mets Will Win
- Kodai Senga’s Redemption Tour: The Japanese import has a 0-4 skid but has allowed just 3 runs in his last 10 innings. If he can remember how to win instead of just pitch well, maybe he’ll break through.
- Juan Soto’s Bat: Soto’s over/under for home runs is set at 0.5 (+450 for over). Take the under—because even Juan Soto can’t hit a HR every game… unless he’s on a caffeine IV.
- Francisco Lindor’s Hits: Lindor’s over/under for hits is 0.5 (-240). Take the over. He’s a shortstop, not a magician, but he’s got a 70.6% implied chance to get at least one hit.
Why the Nationals Might Not
- Brad Lord’s ERA: The Nats’ pitcher has a 3.23 ERA in 5 starts (per the context). That’s baseball-speak for “we’re not paying you to lose, but here’s a check.”
- Josh Bell’s Power: Bell’s HR over/under is 0.5 (+480). Take the under. Bell’s more likely to hit a double than a moonshot tonight.
Prop Bets to Steal (or at Least Not Lose)
- Francisco Lindor: Over 0.5 hits (-240). He’s a .300 hitter—this is a layup.
- Juan Soto: Under 0.5 HRs (-230). Even Soto needs a breather.
- CJ Abrams: Over 0.5 doubles (+380). Abrams is a speedster, not a slugger, but the odds are juicy here.
Final Score Prediction
Mets 6, Nationals 2. The Mets’ 5.4 runs/game average (13th in MLB) will outpace the Nats’ 4.3 (20th). And if you’re feeling spicy, take the Over 8.0 runs (-110)… because nothing says “fun” like a high-scoring dud.
In Summary
The Mets are the Mercedes-Benz of this matchup; the Nationals are a rental car with a flat tire. Grab a Lindor hit prop, sip your coffee, and enjoy the Nats’ valiant effort to make us all question our life choices.
“This is a crime,” as one handicapper put it. Guilty as charged.
Created: Aug. 21, 2025, 12:01 p.m. GMT