Prop Bets: New York Yankees VS Chicago White Sox 2025-08-28
Yankees vs. White Sox: A Comedy of Errors (or Walks Walk!)
The New York Yankees (-1050 on the moneyline, per DraftKings) roll into Chicago as overwhelming favorites, but let’s be honest—this game hinges on two things: Will Warren’s ability to strike out more batters than a stand-up comedian drops punchlines and Davis Martin’s alarming habit of walking batters like they’re on a group tour of Wrigley Field.
The Warren Wobble
Will Warren (4.47 ERA) is tasked with keeping the Yankees’ offense alive. While his road strikeout average (4.8 K/9) is decent, the prop bet Over 4.5 strikeouts (-160) is a statistical minefield. Warren has only eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in 8 of 13 road starts this year, and at -160, the implied probability (61.5%) feels like a bet on a coin flip that’s been cursed by a disgruntled umpire.
Martin’s Walk of Shame
Davis Martin (3.93 ERA) is the real money-maker here. The Yankees draw walks at an MLB-high 10.1% rate, and Martin has served up 3+ walks in four of his last six starts. The prop Martin +130 to allow 3+ walks is a no-brainer. At +130, the implied odds (43.5%) are laughably generous for a pitcher who’s turned into a free-baseball machine.
The Over/Under: 9 Runs (-105)
Both teams are hitting like they’re in a home-run derby since the All-Star break (Yankees: .779 OPS, White Sox: .773). The OVER 9 runs (-105) is a 50-50 coin toss in disguise, but with Martin’s control issues and the Yankees’ patient bats, this game could explode into a fireworks show.
Final Verdict
Bet the OVER 9 (-105) and Martin +130 walks. If Warren can muster 5 strikeouts, tip your cap—but don’t bet on it. As the Sports Illustrated article wisely notes, “conservative” is the watchword here. Unless you’re betting on Davis Martin to single-handedly invent the term “pitcher’s pass,” in which case, go nuts.
Lineup Card: Yankees 5, White Sox 4 (with 3 walks, 1 ejection, and a rain delay for good measure).
Created: Aug. 29, 2025, 1:06 a.m. GMT