Prop Bets: New York Yankees VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-03
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees – July 3, 2025
Time: 7:08 PM ET
Where to Bet: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and 10 other sites (because you’re never just one site away from regret).
The Setup:
The Toronto Blue Jays are 3-0 in their last three against the Yankees, but don’t let that fool you—they’re just riding a hot streak, not a subway. The Yankees, meanwhile, are sending Clarke Schmidt to the mound, a pitcher who’s as reliable as a Wi-Fi connection in a subway tunnel. His 5.5 K/9? Impressive. His 4.5 ER/9? Less so.
Why This Game is a Slam Dunk (or a Groundout):
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the star of the show tonight. Facing Clarke Schmidt, who’s been a soft touch for lefties (.519 xSLG in 14 PA), Guerrero is a -110 favorite to post 1.5+ total bases. That’s not just a bet—it’s a certainty, unless Schmidt suddenly develops a 100 mph heater. Guerrero’s also a +145 shot to drive in a run, which is just polite code for “he’ll do it whether you like it or not.”
Prop Bets to Steal Your Heart (and a Few Bucks):
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases Over 1.5 (-110): With Schmidt’s fly-ball tendencies, Guerrero’s .519 xSLG suggests he’ll either hit a moonshot or trip over first base. Either way, it’s entertainment.
- Addison Barger Over 0.5 RBIs (+175): The Yankees’ lineup is so weak, Barger might as well be the leadoff hitter. Bet on him to scratch up a single and a sac fly—classy.
- Game Total Under 8.5 Runs (-105): The bullpens are both leaking oil. The Jays’ pen has the ERA of a leaky faucet (4.85), and the Yankees’ Chris Bassitt is 5-9 with a 5.12 ERA. This game could end 2-1 or 12-11. Either way, it’s a nailbiter.
The Verdict:
The Yankees are a slight -190 favorite, but this feels like betting on a rooster to lay an egg. The Blue Jays have the edge with their depleted bullpen and Chris Bassitt on the mound, who’s as trustworthy as a used car salesman. But Guerrero’s matchup is too juicy to ignore.
Final Prediction:
Toronto 4, New York 3. Guerrero hits a solo shot in the 9th, and the Jays’ closer blows it because, well, it’s the Blue Jays.
Key Odds:
- Moneyline: Yankees -190, Blue Jays +170
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+220), Blue Jays +1.5 (-260)
- Total: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)
Prop Pick: Guerrero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110). Because physics.
Note: No actual physics were harmed in the making of this prediction. Clarke Schmidt, however, may need therapy. 🎬⚾
Created: July 3, 2025, 10:03 p.m. GMT