Prop Bets: New York Yankees VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-21
Yankees vs. Blue Jays: A Tale of Two Power Hitters and a Pitcher’s Desperate Prayer
The New York Yankees (54-44) and Toronto Blue Jays (57-41) clash in a high-stakes AL East showdown, with Carlos Rodon (-150) and Kevin Gausman (+130) on the mound. Let’s break this down with the precision of a stolen-base attempt and the humor of a fan who’s seen too many rain delays.
The Pitcher’s Prayer
Kevin Gausman (4.19 ERA) faces Aaron Judge, who’s hit 6 HRs and driven in 12 runs against him in his career. Gausman’s ERA? A modest 4.19. Rodon (3.08 ERA) is the better bet, but even he’s not immune to the “Toronto magic” that’s handed the Jays a 56.6% win rate as underdogs this season.
The Judge Factor
Aaron Judge (-135) is a must-play for 2.5+ total bases. His 375 OBP vs. Gausman? A .372/.488/.810 slash. The odds imply a 59% chance he’ll hit the 2.5+ mark—because Judge doesn’t do “under,” unless it’s his bedtime.
Gausman’s Desperate Dance
Gausman’s under 5.5 strikeouts (-150) is a 60% implied bet. He’s struck out 5.1 batters per game this season, so this is a “safe” play for the risk-averse. But if you must gamble, his over 8.5 runs total (1.87) is a joke—Toronto’s offense is 12th in MLB in runs scored.
Props to Note
- Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Total Bases (+135): 59% implied. He’s hit 4.1 TBG this season.
- Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150): 60% implied. His 5.1 K/9 is a “low bar.”
- Gausman Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-130): 56.5% implied. Toronto’s 4.19 team ERA vs. LHP? 4.25.
Final Verdict
Take the Yankees (-150) unless you enjoy watching Gausman get shelled. But if you’re feeling spicy, back Judge to mash and Gausman to crumble. Either way, this game’s total (8.5) is a toss-up—like a fan who can’t decide between hot dogs and nachos.
Play it safe, or play it funny. Either way, play it with data. 🎲⚾
Created: July 21, 2025, 7:32 p.m. GMT