Prop Bets: Philadelphia Phillies VS Miami Marlins 2025-09-05
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: A Home Run Party for Kyle Schwarber?
The Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber is one home run away from 50 on the season—a historic feat that’s got bettors salivating. Enter the Miami Marlins, whose starter Freddy Peralta (2.58 ERA) has allowed exactly two home runs in 17 career innings to Schwarber. But here’s the kicker: Those two homers came in Schwarber’s last three plate appearances against him.
The Prop Bet Goldmine:
Schwarber is +240 to go deep Thursday, per the latest odds. That’s a implied probability of just 29.4%—a steal for a slugger who’s averaged a home run every 9.8 at-bats this season. And let’s not forget: He’s already homered four times in a single game this year. If Peralta’s slider slips even slightly, Schwarber might make it five.
Why Schwarber’s a Lock?
- Historic Power: 2nd in MLB in HRs (49), trailing only Cal Raleigh.
- Peralta Matchup: 2 HRs in 3 career ABs. Because why not?
- Prop Odds: +240 (FanDuel) for Over 0.5 HR. Bet like it’s a freebie.
Other Props Worth a Chuckle:
- Trea Turner is -110 to exceed 1.5 total bases. Turner’s been a one-trick pony lately—namely, hitting singles.
- Bryce Harper (+180 to Over 1.5 RBIs) might finally break out of his slump… or not.
- Miami’s bullpen is -115 to allow 5.5 hits. Good luck—Phillies hitters are due.
Final Verdict:
Schwarber’s HR prop is a no-brainer. The man’s chasing history, and Peralta’s ERA doesn’t matter if the ball leaves the park. Lay the juice on Schwarber to go yard. And if you’re feeling spicy, throw in Turner’s total bases under for some parlay magic.
“Schwarber the storm, Peralta the pawn. This is why we bet.” 🎲⚾
Created: Sept. 5, 2025, 7:42 a.m. GMT