Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS Connecticut Sun 2025-09-06

WNBA Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun – September 6, 2025
By The Handicapper Who Still Believes in Miracles (and Alyssa Thomas’s Assists)

The Phoenix Mercury (-125 moneyline) are the clear favorites here, and honestly? The math doesn’t lie. At -125, their implied probability is 55.56%—which is about the same chance your neighbor has of finally mowing their lawn this decade. Connecticut’s 5.4 odds (≈18.5% implied) scream “long shot,” which is fitting because the Sun haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately.

Let’s talk player props, because that’s where the real fun begins:
- Alyssa Thomas is the star of the show. Her assists prop (9.5) is a toss-up at +105/-135. Last time she hit double-digit dimes, she probably celebrated by eating a whole pizza. But with the Mercury’s offense humming (160.5 total points implied), she’s got a shot.
- Double-double prop (-200)? That’s like betting on a sunrise—predictable, but still worth the cash. Thomas has 17 straight double-doubles, so unless she’s cursed by a rogue rebound, this is a lock.

The spread (-10.5) is a tight one. Phoenix’s offense is averaging 162 points per game (over the 160.5 total), while Connecticut’s defense ranks 12th in the league. If the Mercury hit their usual 10.5-point spread, they’ll be sipping margaritas while the Sun sip lukewarm coffee.

Why Phoenix?
- The Mercury’s net rating (+4.8) is like a well-oiled machine, while the Sun’s (-1.6) is a rusty lawnmower.
- Connecticut’s road record (8-12) is worse than a toddler’s nap schedule.

Final Verdict:
Phoenix is the pick, but not because they’re good—because they’re the only team in this matchup who hasn’t been cursed by a 10-point deficit. Bet the Mercury (-10.5) to cover, and throw in a parlay with Thomas’s assists over 9.5. If that fails, at least you’ll have a funny story about how Alyssa Thomas’s pizza addiction backfired.

“The Sun may rise in the east, but it’ll set in Connecticut after this game.” 🌞🔥

Created: Sept. 5, 2025, 6:59 p.m. GMT