Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS Dallas Wings 2025-09-11
Phoenix Mercury to Run Over Dallas Wings in a Game That’s Already Decided (But Let’s Pretend It Isn’t)
The Phoenix Mercury (27-16) are here to remind the Dallas Wings (9-34) that their 10-game losing streak isn’t a typo—it’s a lifestyle. With a 69.2% implied win probability (per the moneyline of -194) and a -5.5-point spread, the Mercury aren’t just favored—they’re the WNBA’s version of a “Please stop hitting yourself” moment for Dallas.
Key Stats to Know:
- Phoenix’s Defense: Allows a league-best 79.7 points per game. Dallas? They score 81.3 on a good day.
- Alyssa Thomas: The Mercury’s Swiss Army knife averages 15.7 PPG. Her over 15.5 points (-115) is a safe bet, per the odds.
- Paige Bueckers: Dallas’s star is averaging 19.1 PPG, but her under 18.5 points (-120) is the smarter play. Why? Because the Mercury’s defense makes stars look like draft picks.
Prop Bets to Consider:
- Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points (-115): She’s scored double-digit points in 12 straight games.
- Paige Bueckers Under 18.5 Points (-120): Dallas’s offense is so anemic, Bueckers might need a defibrillator just to stay above 15.
- Total Points Over 166.5 (-110): Phoenix’s 10th-ranked offense (104.2 PPG) vs. Dallas’s 13th-ranked defense (106.8 PPG allowed) = a points parade.
Why Dallas Will Lose:
- Injuries: Arike Ogunbowale’s absence (knee tendonitis) is like asking a fish to play chess—technically possible, but not helpful.
- History: Phoenix has won 2 of 3 meetings this season, including a 30-point thrashing (102-72) in July where Satou Sabally dropped 36.
Final Prediction:
Phoenix Mercury 89-76 Dallas Wings. The Wings’ 35.7% chance of winning is about as realistic as a snowball in the Sahara. Bet the Mercury, cash the Thomas over, and laugh all the way to the bank—or at least to the postgame press conference where Dallas’s coach pretends this was a “tough loss.”
Disclaimer: This game is so one-sided, the only thing Dallas might over/under is their dignity. 🏀🔥
Created: Sept. 11, 2025, 6:40 p.m. GMT