Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS Golden State Valkyries 2025-07-14
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: A Reality Show of Redemption
By Your Humorously Confident Handicapper
The Phoenix Mercury (14-6) are rolling with eight wins in their last 10 games, but they’re missing Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, leaving Alyssa Thomas to carry the torch. Meanwhile, the Golden State Valkyries (10-10) are hosting this showdown at Chase Center, where they’ve gone 7-3 SU this season. DraftKings has the Valkyries as a -117 favorite, while the Mercury are a +105 underdog. Let’s break this down with the precision of a TikTok algorithm.
Key Stats & Implied Probabilities
- Valkyries’ defense allows just 78.6 PPG (WNBA’s 4th-best), while the Mercury average 84.6 PPG (2nd-best). The total is set at 158.5 points, with the under priced at even money (-110).
- Implied probability: Valkyries win ≈ 53.7%, Mercury ≈ 48.8%.
Player Props to Steal the Spotlight
1. Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) – Over 15.5 Points (-115)
Thomas is averaging 15.5 PPG in her last five games. With Sabally out, she’s the Mercury’s emotional leader. Bet her to stay hot, or bet against her because no one wants to watch a 38-year-old post-up artist try to win a dunk contest.
- Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) – Over 13.5 Points (-135)
Thornton’s scoring 14.8 PPG on 52% shooting. She’s the Valkyries’ engine, and with their home-court advantage, she’s a safe bet to eclipse this line.
- Tiffany Hayes (Mercury) – Over 12.5 Points (-115)
Hayes is averaging 13.4 PPG in her last 10 games. Peter Dewey of Sports Illustrated says she’s “too good to pass up.” Translation: Her odds are better than your chance of finding a parking spot near Chase Center.
Prediction
This game feels like a reality show: the Mercury are the underdog drama queens, and the Valkyries are the calculating housewives plotting to win. The Mercury’s offense is stellar, but their defense? Not so much. The Valkyries’ suffocating D (+6.2 net rating at home) should snuff out Phoenix’s scoring fireworks.
Final Score Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 79, Phoenix Mercury 72.
Bet: Valkyries -1.5 (if you’re feeling spicy) or the Under 158.5 (defense wins championships, folks).
And if Alyssa Thomas hits a three? Bonus points for the entire internet groaning. 🏀
Created: July 14, 2025, 2:13 p.m. GMT