Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS New York Liberty 2025-09-17
WNBA Playoffs Prediction: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury are about to learn that "mercury" is also a term for melting under pressure. Let’s dive into the numbers.
The Spread & Moneyline
- Liberty (-4.5) are the clear chalk at -155 (implied probability: 61%), while the Mercury (+4.5) sit at +120 (45.5%).
- Liberty’s home dominance (17-5, +12.1 net rating) and Breanna Stewart’s questionable status (knee injury) make this line a no-brainer. The Mercury shot 23.1% from three in Game 1—don’t expect a hot streak anytime soon.
Over/Under: 159.5 Points (-110/-110)
Take the under. Both teams combined for 145 points in Game 1, and the Liberty’s defense (6th in the league, 80.3 PPG allowed) will suffocate Phoenix again.
Key Player Props
1. Satou Sabally Over 14.5 Points (-114)
- Sabally’s 2-17 shooting in Game 1 is a black eye, but her 16.3 PPG season average and increased playoff minutes make this prop a steal. She’ll bounce back—probably.
- Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 Points (-120)
- Cloud dropped 23 points in Game 1. With Stewart sidelined, she’ll shoulder more offensive load. Her 18.5 PPG this postseason proves she’s a threat.
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists (-135)
- Thomas dishes out 5.8 APG—crucial for a Liberty team that thrives on ball movement. Bet she’ll keep the wheels turning.
Why the Mercury Are Doomed
- Fourth-quarter collapse: Phoenix scored 12 points in Q4 and OT of Game 1. That’s less than a typical halftime show.
- Shooting woes: The Mercury shot 23.1% from three in Game 1. Even if they fix their offense, the Liberty’s defense won’t let them catch fire.
Final Prediction
New York Liberty 78, Phoenix Mercury 67
The Liberty’s home-court magic and the Mercury’s offensive regression make this a one-sided affair. Sabally will hit her prop, Cloud will shine, and Phoenix will wonder why they didn’t just bring a net and call it a day.
Bet the under—and maybe chuckle at the Mercury’s plight. 🏀🔥
Created: Sept. 17, 2025, 3:46 p.m. GMT