Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS Washington Mystics 2025-07-27
Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics: A "Phoenix" Rising Over D.C.
The Phoenix Mercury (-7, -316 ML) are favored to end their three-game skid and humiliate the Washington Mystics (12-12) in D.C. on Sunday. With Satou Sabally (18.2 PPG) and Alyssa Thomas (13.5 PPG) leading the charge, Phoenix’s offense looks to exploit a Mystics defense that surrenders 80.0 PPG. Meanwhile, Brittney Sykes (16.8 PPG) and her 4.5 APG could keep Washington competitive, but the Mercury’s sixth-ranked defense might smother her.
Key Props to Bet:
- Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 Points (-102): The Mercury’s Swiss Army knife averages 13.5 PPG and is a -102 favorite to surpass that. Why not? She’s basically a human calculator when it comes to scoring.
- Brittney Sykes Over 13.5 Points (+100): Sykes’ 16.8 PPG average makes this a coin flip (+100), but her inconsistency (see: "mystery" in Mystics’ name) adds spice.
- Total Points Under 164.5 (-110): The teams average 161.3 PPG combined, but Phoenix’s defense (+7.1 net rating) and Washington’s leaky offense (11th in scoring) suggest a tighter game than the inflated total implies.
Why Phoenix Wins:
The Mercury’s implied probability (76%) isn’t just math—it’s destiny. Sabally’s scoring, Thomas’s all-around game, and a defense that stifles opponents all but guarantee a cover. The Mystics, despite home-court advantage, lack the star power to match Phoenix’s firepower.
Why Washington Might Survive:
Miracles happen in July. If Sykes heats up (she’s 5-for-10 from three this season) and the Mercury’s bench implodes, D.C. could pull off an upset. But with a 28.6% implied win probability, this is the sports equivalent of betting on a snowstorm in July.
Final Prediction:
Phoenix 85, Washington 78. Sabally drops 20, Thomas dishes 8 assists, and Sykes… well, she’ll probably have a double-double but can’t save the day. Bet the Mercury to cover (-7) and Thomas’s points prop. And if you must take a long shot, throw some chalk on Sykes’ over.
“The only thing Mystics should be serving is coffee, not basketball.” 🏀🔥
Created: July 27, 2025, 1:46 p.m. GMT