Prop Bets: Pittsburgh Pirates VS San Francisco Giants 2025-07-30
Pirates vs. Giants: A Tale of Two Pitchers (and Why the Underdog Smells Like Victory)
The Pittsburgh Pirates, armed with a left-handed starter who’s been as reliable as a Swiss watch (Bailey Falter, 7 quality starts in 8 tries), are set to embarrass the San Francisco Giants, whose "ace" Justin Verlander has the strikeout rate of a tired math teacher on a Monday morning. The chalkboard says Pirates +1.5 (-151 at DraftKings), and I’m here to tell you this line is as inevitable as a draft pick flaming out in the NFL.
Why the Pirates Will Win
- Verlander’s Resume: Let’s not sugarcoat it—Justin Verlander is having a “career-low strikeout rate” (18%) and a barrel rate that’s basically a sieve. The Pirates’ lineup, featuring Oneil Cruz (home-run threat), Bryan Reynolds (batting average that could pass for a stock ticker), and Andrew McCutchen (still here? Still here!), will treat Verlander like a piñata at a party.
- Falter’s Fortress: The lefty has been so good lately, he’s basically the MLB version of a “Do Not Disturb” sign. The Giants’ offense (5-12 in Verlander’s starts this year) might as well be playing against a wall.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
- Moneyline: Pirates at +260 (FanDuel), which implies a 27.8% implied probability. Not great, but considering the context, it’s a discount for a team that thrives as underdogs.
- Spread: Pirates +1.5 (-151). You’re paying a premium, but if you like underdogs who “steal” games, this is your jam.
- Total: 7.5 runs (Under -182 at FanDuel). With Verlander’s pedestrian stuff and Falter’s control, this game smells like a pitcher’s duel gone right.
Prop Bets to Steal (or Avoid)
- Rafael Devers is the star of the show here. The Sports Illustrated tipster isn’t wrong—Devers has hit .293 since the All-Star break, and his “Over 1.5 hits” line is -230 at FanDuel. That’s a 57.7% implied probability. If you’re feeling spicy, take the Over on his RBIs (-170 at DraftKings).
- Oneil Cruz (-190 for Over 0.5 HRs) is a safer play if you want power, but let’s be real—Cruz’s HR/FB rate is higher than a toddler on a trampoline.
- Avoid: The Giants’ “Over 7.5 total runs” (-182). This game is going to be so low-scoring, the fans will start bringing their own snacks just to have something to do.
Final Verdict
The Pirates are the ultimate underdog story here. Verlander is a legend, sure, but legends don’t last forever, and this Giants team (8-18 in their last 26 games) is about as consistent as a toddler’s nap schedule. Take the Pirates +1.5 and a side bet on Devers to remind the baseball world that sometimes, the guy with the “worst” ERA actually wants to lose.
Prediction: Pirates 3, Giants 2. Verlander looks like a $20 bill in a Monopoly game. Devers gets his hits. And the Giants’ manager probably yells at a waterboy. Classic baseball.
Created: July 30, 2025, 5:14 a.m. GMT