Prop Bets: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Washington Nationals 2025-09-13
The Nationals vs. Pirates: A Tale of Two Teams That Can’t Score
The Washington Nationals (60-86) and Pittsburgh Pirates (64-83) clash in a game that’s less of a contest and more of a “who can throw the ball into the stands first” exhibition. The Nationals are -120 favorites, which is about as exciting as watching a spreadsheet auto-calculate. Both teams rank in the bottom five in MLB in runs scored, so this game’s total of 9 runs feels like a generous offer from the oddsmakers.
Why the Nationals?
Despite their dismal record, the Nationals are favored because they’re slightly less bad at hitting. They average 4.3 runs per game (22nd in MLB) to the Pirates’ 3.6 (last). Their lineup, though, is a collection of “what if?”—think Josh Bell’s 1.5-hit prop (-278) and Bryan Reynolds’ 1.5-RBI line (-145). Bell’s implied probability of hitting safely is 72.8%, so unless he’s playing 2025’s version of “Touch ’em All,” take the over on his hits.
The Pitchers?
Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez (-140 on 3.5 Ks) is a strikeout machine, but his 5.30 ERA suggests he’s more “clutch it” than “pitch it.” Pirates’ Bubba Chandler (+105 on 4.5 Ks) is a safer bet to underwhelm, given Pittsburgh’s .232 team average. Take the under on Chandler’s strikeouts (4.5, -140) unless you enjoy watching him throw 100 pitches to get 15 batters out.
Prop Bets to Steal (Literally)
- Josh Bell Over 0.5 Hits (-149): Bell’s implied probability is 59.7%. He’s not a .500 hitter, but he’s not a .100 either. Take the over.
- Andrew Alvarez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140): Alvarez’s 7.8 K/9 is decent, but against this Pirates lineup? Take the under.
- Total Game Runs Under 9 (-115): Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in runs scored. The total’s a gift from the bookmakers.
Final Prediction:
This game will be a snoozefest, but the Nationals’ slightly better offense gives them a 54.5% implied chance to win. Expect a 2-1 Nationals victory, with Bell going 1-for-3 and Alvarez striking out 3 batters. The Pirates will leave 10 runners on base, and the crowd will start a petition to replace the grass with bubble wrap.
Take:
- Nationals -120
- Under 9 Runs (-115)
- Josh Bell Over 0.5 Hits (-149)
Note: If you bet the Pirates, may your patience be rewarded with a single run and a free hot dog. 🍔⚾
Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 5:30 p.m. GMT