Prop Bets: Queensland Maroons VS New South Wales Blues 2025-07-09

State of Origin 2025 Decider: A Comedy of Errors (and Emotions)

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a third game of State of Origin that’s equal parts rugby league and The Sopranos—because nothing says “gladiatorial combat” like two teams with more ego than a toddler in time-out.

The Setup:
New South Wales Blues, led by Nathan Cleary (Penrith’s “I’ll prove I’m not just a Penrith parasite” guy), are sticking with the same 17 players that lost Game 2. Coach Laurie Daley’s loyalty? A four-letter word in Queensland. Meanwhile, Billy Slater’s Queensland Maroons have gone full Game of Thrones—dropping captain Daly Cherry-Evans and anointing Tom Dearden as halfback. Oh, and they’ve lured Josh Papalii out of representative retirement like a siren song for a man who just wanted a quiet life.

The Emotional Underdog:
Cameron Munster, Queensland’s new captain, is tasked with leading the Maroons three days after his father’s funeral. Braith Anasta says it’s “horrible,” but Munster’s reportedly channeling Shane Warne’s “block out the noise” vibes. If he tops his Game 2 heroics (2 tries, 2 assists, and a tearful post-match interview that made a rugby union ref cry), bookies might need to recalibrate their odds. Player Prop Alert: Will Munster score a try? The implied probability? Let’s say it’s “higher than Daley’s chances of a second term as coach.”

The X-Factors:
- Nathan Cleary vs. Tom Dearden: Cleary’s Origin decider record is 0-2 (Penrith’s playmaker, not a fan of pressure). Dearden, the Game 3 halfback debutant, is either a genius pick or Slater’s midlife crisis.
- Josh Papalii’s Return: The Maroons’ enforcer is back from retirement. Will he tackle harder out of duty or dread? Implied probability of a highlight-reel tackle: 87% (because math).

The Odds (As Told by a Slightly Tipsy Bookie):
No actual odds were provided, but based on Slater’s “roll-the-dice” coaching and Daley’s “trust the process” stubbornness, here’s your breakdown:
- Queensland Maroons (+200): Because heart, drama, and a roster that looks like a draft class from a fantasy league.
- New South Wales Blues (-250): Because stability, Nathan Cleary’s “I’ll redeem myself” energy, and the hope that injuries don’t derail them.

Prediction:
This game will be decided by whether Cameron Munster can channel his grief into a try-scoring spree (we’re looking at you, Gorden Tallis) or if Nathan Cleary will finally silence critics by engineering a last-minute field goal that somehow goes through the posts and hits a seagull in the face.

Final Score (Because I Can’t Resist):
Queensland Maroons 22, New South Wales Blues 18. Munster steals the show, Dearden doesn’t throw a single interception, and Cleary’s meltdown is postponed until next year.

Disclaimer: This prediction is not financial advice. If you bet on a seagull getting hit by a field goal, you’re on your own. 🏈🦜

Created: July 8, 2025, 11:14 p.m. GMT