Prop Bets: Real Madrid VS Alavés 2025-12-14
La Liga Showdown: Alavés vs. Real Madrid – A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Fatigue)
The Setup:
Real Madrid, fresh off a midweek Champions League clash and two league losses (including a 0-2 home defeat to Celta Vigo), rolls into Vitoria as a 1.54 favorite (implied probability: 64.9%) to avoid further embarrassment. Alavés, meanwhile, boasts a 14-point home record in 8 games and has only lost twice at home (both by 1-0 margins). The last time these teams met, Real Madrid won 1-0 in 2023 and 2024—conveniently before this season’s chaos began.
Key Stats:
- Real Madrid’s defense is a sieve on the road, conceding 2.1 goals per game.
- Alavés’ attack? A modest 1.2 goals per game, but their defense is stingy: 1.1 goals conceded per game.
- Real Madrid’s key absences: Dani Carvajal, Mbappé (questionable), Vinicius, Militão, and Endrick. Alavés is missing Maras and Guriđi.
The Verdict:
This is a "Total Under 2.5 Goals" (-125 to -140) opportunity, given both teams’ recent struggles. Real Madrid’s offense is missing stars, and Alavés’ defense is built for tight games. If you’re feeling spicy, back Real Madrid +1.0 (-110 to -115) to avoid a loss. But if you’re a masochist, go with Alavés at 6.0—because why not root for the underdog to shock the world?
Player Props to Watch:
1. Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goal Scorer (-170): The Parisian poster boy is supposed to be a goal machine, but his legs might be leaden after the Man City clash. Still, the odds love him.
2. Vinicius Junior Over 0.5 Assists (+140): If he’s not scoring, he’s threading needles—unless Alavés’ midfield smothers him.
3. First Goal Scorer: Mbappé (210) vs. Vinicius (400). Bet on Mbappé to silence doubters early… or fade him and cheer for a 0-0 draw.
Final Score Prediction:
Alavés 1, Real Madrid 1 (because even a draw feels like a win for Alavés, and Real Madrid’s coaching staff will probably quit anyway).
Why Trust Me? Because the math says Real Madrid should win, but the narrative screams for a collapse. And we all know who bookmakers love more: favorites or chaos.
Place your bets, and may the odds be ever in your favor. 🎲
Created: Dec. 14, 2025, 6:48 p.m. GMT