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Prop Bets: Reilly Opelka VS Alex de Minaur 2025-08-10

Prediction: Alex de Minaur vs. Reilly Opelka – Cincinnati Open 2025
Date/Time: August 10, 2025, 11:00 a.m. (local time)

The Setup:
Alex de Minaur (No. 8 ATP), the 8th seed, is a -325 favorite to dismantle Reilly Opelka (No. 73 ATP), who’s a +240 underdog. In decimal terms, de Minaur’s implied probability of winning is 84.0% (via DraftKings’ 1.19 odds), while Opelka’s is a laughably low 20.4% (4.9 odds). If you’re betting on Opelka, you’re essentially saying, “I trust this 6’11” serve like I trust my ex to remember our anniversary.”

Why de Minaur?
- He’s ranked 44 spots higher than Opelka.
- His serve-return game is like a Swiss watch; Opelka’s return game is like my ability to parallel park.
- The spread has de Minaur at -3.5 games (per Bovada), which is tennis code for “we think this is a rout.”

Player Prop to Note:
- Total Games Over/Under 22.5 (Bovada: Over at 1.83, Under at 1.91). Given Opelka’s booming serve (225+ mph, baby!) and de Minaur’s baseline grind, over 22.5 games is a solid prop. Imagine Opelka firing aces like a human cannonball, only for de Minaur to reply with a forehand that makes you question the laws of physics.

Final Verdict:
This match is less “tennis” and more “watch Reilly Opelka try to not get steamrolled.” de Minaur’s implied probability of 84% isn’t just confidence—it’s math. Unless Opelka decides to summon the ghost of John McEnroe to teach him how to return a serve, this is a coroner’s report in three sets.

Pick: de Minaur (-3.5) and Over 22.5 games.
Reason: Because if you’re paying to watch Opelka’s serve, you’re already halfway to Vegas. Might as well bet on the fireworks.

Stats courtesy of DraftKings, Bovada, and the eternal struggle of underdog hopefuls. 🎾🔥

Created: Aug. 10, 2025, 12:39 p.m. GMT