Prop Bets: San Diego Padres VS Chicago White Sox 2025-09-20
Padres vs. White Sox: A Tale of Two Teams (and One Very Tired Pitcher)
By The Sportswriter Who Still Thinks "Chase Utley" is a Real Person
The San Diego Padres (-171) are favored to stomp the Chicago White Sox (+143) in what promises to be a snooze-fest of a game—unless you count the sound of Yu Darvish’s fastball whizzing past Yoendrys Gómez’s bat. Let’s break it down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a broken calculator.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Also Don’t Care)
- Padres: 83-70, 4.3 R/G, 26 HRs, 3.69 ERA.
- White Sox: 57-96, 4.0 R/G, 154 HRs, 4.24 ERA.
- Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (4.50 ERA, 60 Ks in 62 IP) vs. Yoendrys GĂłmez (4.76 ERA, 33 Ks in 35 IP).
Implied Probability: The Padres’ -171 line suggests they’re a 63% favorite to win. The White Sox’ +143 line? A 41% chance to pull off a miracle.
Why the Padres Will Win
1. Yu Darvish: He’s not great, but he’s better than Gómez, who’s 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA. Darvish’s 5.5 K/9 (5.6 K/9 this season) will keep the White Sox in check.
2. Power Hitters: The Padres have 26 HRs this season. The White Sox? 154. But hey, context: the White Sox hit 154 HRs in 153 games. They’re not exactly the 2022 Astros.
Why the White Sox Might Not Care
They’re 39-86 on the road this season. Their best hope? Hope Darvish implodes. But his ERA is 4.50. Not great, but not explosive.
Prop Bets to Steal (or at Least Click)
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Doubles (-310): The kid’s got 22 HRs, but he’s also hit 31 doubles. Take the Over.
2. Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs (-137): With 92 RBIs on the season, Machado’s a machine.
3. Tatis Over 2.5 Total Bases (-107): He’s averaged 0.3 TB/G. Take the Over and laugh.
4. Gómez Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115): His ERA says “Under,” his K/9 says “Under,” his career says “Under.”
Final Prediction
The Padres win 5-2. Darvish Ks 6, Gómez gets shelled but tries to blame the “Chicago wind.” Tatis Jr. goes 2-for-4 with a double and a RBI. The White Sox fans leave early to buy deep-dish pizza.
And remember: If you bet on the White Sox, you’re either a gambler or a masochist. Probably both. 🎲⚾
Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 3:46 p.m. GMT