Prop Bets: San Diego Padres VS New York Mets 2025-09-18
Padres vs. Mets Prediction: A Laugher for the Over?
The San Diego Padres and New York Mets meet in a pivotal playoff race clash, but let’s be honest: this game smells like a 9-run fireworks show. With Randy Vasquez (3.72 ERA, but 5.57 xERA and a first-percentile strikeout rate) on the mound for SD and Mets rookie Jonah Tong (8.49 ERA, 4+ runs allowed in 3 straight starts) trying to survive, the total of 9 runs (-108) is practically a guarantee.
Key Stats to Know:
- Vasquez has given up 15 HRs in 25 IP this year. His stuff? Cringe-worthy: 11.2% barrel rate, 6th percentile xERA.
- Tong has been even worse: 4.50 BB/9, 12.5% walk rate. He’s a free pass to the Mets’ lineup.
- The Mets’ Juan Soto is scorching hot: .313 AVG, 10 HRs in 28 days. He’s a -165 favorite to hit safely tonight.
Prop Pick: Soto’s Over/Under
Soto’s 1.5-hit prop is -145. With his .987 OPS vs. RHPs and Vasquez’s porous defense, Soto’s implied probability (58%) is a steal. Bet the over.
Final Verdict:
Over 9 Runs (-108) – Vasquez and Tong are both pitching like they’ve never seen a baseball before. The Mets’ lineup (4.7 R/G) and Padres’ offense (4.3 R/G) will feast. This game is a 10-12 run party. Take the over and laugh all the way to the bank.
Prediction: 10-11 final score. Mets win 6-4.
Prop Alert: Soto 1.5+ hits (-145).
“Vasquez? He’s a human home run sign. Tong? He’s a free pass. This game’s gonna stink like a rookie’s ERA.” — Your Humble Handicapper, 2025.
Created: Sept. 18, 2025, 2:09 p.m. GMT