Prop Bets: San Francisco Giants VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-20
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Giant Underdog
The Toronto Blue Jays (-113) are favored to continue their dominance as moneyline favorites, riding a 60.5% win rate in such scenarios this season. Their offense, ranked 12th in runs scored, will test San Francisco’s 2nd-best ERA (3.53) led by Jose Berrios (4.5 K, -112/-125 strikeout prop). But don’t count out the Giants (-113) just yet—they’ve somehow managed to lose 48.6% of games as underdogs, which is mathematically impressive.
Key Matchup:
Berrios vs. Robbie Ray. Berrios’ 4.5 K line (-112) faces Ray’s 2.5 ER Under/Over (-125). Will the Giants’ “lefty-friendly” lineup (30.6% K rate vs. LHP) exploit Berrios? Probably not.
Player Prop to Watch:
Addison Barger (-155) to hit >1.5 total bases vs. righties. The Giants’ secret weapon? He’s got the tools, but the odds? Not so much.
Why the Giants Might Win:
- They’ll probably strike out a lot (30.6% K rate vs. LHP).
- Maybe Berrios will magically forget how to pitch.
Why the Blue Jays Will Win:
- Because they’re 56-41 and have a 4th-best strikeout rate (26.4%).
- Berrios’ 4.5 K line? That’s just the opening act.
Final Prediction:
Toronto 5, San Francisco 3. The Giants will make it interesting, but Berrios’ K prop hits, and Barger’s 1.5 total bases Over? Don’t bet on it.
Implied probabilities: Blue Jays 50.6%, Giants 49.4% (thanks to -113 lines). But let’s be real—this is a coin flip with better stats. 🎲⚾
Created: July 20, 2025, 1:27 p.m. GMT