Prop Bets: Seattle Mariners VS Detroit Tigers 2025-07-11
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Prop Bet Bonanza
July 11, 2025 — 7:11 PM ET
The Setup:
The Detroit Tigers (59-35) roll into Comerica Park as favorites (-150 to -160, depending on the book) to continue their "we’re-the-best-team-in-baseball-ask-our-ERA" act. The Seattle Mariners (48-44) arrive fresh off a 6-5 loss to the Yankees, looking to avoid becoming the first team in MLB history to have Cal Raleigh (36 HRs) and Julio Rodriguez (31 HRs) on its roster and still lose to a team led by Riley Greene (22 HRs).
The Pitching Matchup:
Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31 ERA). Skubal, the human embodiment of "don’t swing at anything," is favored to strike out over 8.5 batters (-115) and under 5.5 strikeouts for Castillo (-160). If you’re betting on Skubal to pitch into the 8th, you’re either a masochist or a Tigers fan.
Why the Tigers Should Win:
- Skubal’s ERA is lower than the Mariners’ team batting average (.234). Coincidence? The universe says: "Probably."
- Detroit has gone over the total in 47 of 94 games this year. If they score 3 runs, it’s a moral victory.
Why the Mariners Might Survive:
- Julio Rodriguez (-140 to go over 1.5 hits) and Cal Raleigh (-155 for HRs) are here to remind us that even a .333 OBP can’t buy a hit against a 2.02 ERA pitcher.
- The Mariners have won 14 of 32 games as underdogs. Maybe they’ll take it personally this time.
Prop Bets to Steal (or Lose) Your Shirt:
1. Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits (-140): Bet he’s not a "quiet" slugger.
2. Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115): He’s got the ERA of a Hall of Famer, but can he strike out the side three times? Probably not.
3. Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs (-155): He’s hit 36 already. This is just a formality.
Final Prediction:
The Tigers win 4-2, Skubal fans 9, and the Mariners’ fans go home wondering why they paid $20 for a hot dog. Take Detroit -1.5 unless you’re a Mariners fan with a death wish.
Implied probabilities? The Tigers are 60% favorites (from -150), the Mariners 40% (+130). But in reality? This game’s a coin flip with better odds.
Bonus: If you bet on "Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Doubles" (-130), you’re either a genius or a glutton for punishment. Choose wisely.
Created: July 11, 2025, 6:33 p.m. GMT