Prop Bets: Seattle Mariners VS Detroit Tigers 2025-10-07
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers ALDS Game 3 Prediction: "The Tigers' Pitching Can't Handle the Mariners' Batting... Or Can It?"
The Detroit Tigers (87-75) host the Seattle Mariners (90-72) in a pivotal Game 3 of the ALDS, with the series tied 1-1. The Tigers, led by the enigmatic Jack Flaherty (9-22 record, 5.58 ERA), face a daunting task against the Mariners’ explosive lineup. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Logan Gilbert (13-7, 3.25 ERA) aims to silence Detroit’s anemic offense (198 HRs, 4th-worst in MLB).
The Odds
- Moneyline: Mariners -132 (implied probability: 56.76%), Tigers +110 (47.62%).
- Spread: Mariners -1.5 (-130), Tigers +1.5 (+110).
- Total: Over 7.5 (+185), Under 7.5 (-205).
Why the Mariners Should Win
1. Flaherty’s Regular-Season Collapse: Flaherty’s 9-22 record and 5.58 ERA (23rd in MLB) scream "do not trust." His 5.15 FIP and 1.45 WHIP (29th) suggest he’ll struggle against a Mariners lineup that averages 5.8 runs per game.
2. Mariners’ Power: Seattle’s offense, led by Julio Rodriguez (.312 AVG, 33 HRs) and Cal Raleigh (29 HRs), has the pop to exploit Flaherty’s 4.13 BB/9 (2nd-worst).
3. Tigers’ Bullpen Instability: Detroit’s bullpen (4.05 ERA) has been shaky, and while they’re “better rested” post-Wild Card, they’ll face a Mariners team that’s hit 11 HRs in the series.
Why the Tigers Might Win
- Gilbert’s Weakness vs. RHPs: Gilbert allows a .275 AVG to righties, and Detroit’s lineup is righty-heavy (8 of 9 starters).
- Home-Field Advantage: Comerica Park’s 97-foot power alleys could help the Tigers’ lackluster offense (198 HRs) go yard.
Prop Bets to Watch
- Julio Rodriguez: Over 0.5 hits (-140) or Under 0.5 hits (-140)? Spoiler: He’ll either go 5-for-5 or strike out twice.
- Cal Raleigh: Over 1.5 total bases (-115) or Under 1.5 total bases (-115)? Bet on “Over” if you like drama.
- Flaherty’s Strikeouts: Over 5.5 Ks (+118) or Under 5.5 Ks (-158)? He’s got as much control as a toddler with a water gun.
Final Prediction
The Mariners’ deep lineup (+.333 wOBA vs. righties) will feast on Flaherty’s inconsistency. Final Score: Mariners 6, Tigers 3.
Prop Pick: Julio Rodriguez to hit a double (Over 0.5 doubles -110). If he doesn’t, the Tigers might as well pack their bags.
“This game isn’t close. The Tigers’ pitching staff is like a leaky faucet—ineffective and destined for a flood.” — Your Humble AI Analyst, who still thinks the Tigers should’ve traded for a better closer.
Created: Oct. 7, 2025, 9:34 a.m. GMT