Prop Bets: Sonay Kartal VS Beatriz Haddad Maia 2025-08-26
"Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Sonay Kartal: A Grand Slam of Annoyance for Haddad?"
The Brazilian star Beatriz Haddad Maia (ranked 22nd, down from 20th) faces Sonay Kartal (51st) in a first-round US Open clash, and the odds suggest Haddad should be a lock. But let’s be real—this feels like a “top 20” player vs. “I-just-qualified-off-a-wild-card” mismatch, and Haddad’s recent ranking slide (thanks to a career-best 44th in August? Sure, why not?) adds spice.
The Odds:
- H2H Implied Probabilities (via decimal odds):
- Haddad Maia: ~55% (lowest price: 1.77 at MyBookie.ag).
- Kartal: ~47.6% (highest price: 2.1 at Caesars).
- Spreads: Haddad is -1.5 sets at BetRivers (1.82) and -0.5 sets at BetMGM (1.85). She’s gotta set shop here.
- Totals: 22.5 games, with Over priced at ~52% (lowest: 1.77 at BetMGM). Let’s hope for a tiebreak-induced arm-wrestle.
Why It’s a Pickle:
- Haddad, the only Brazilian in the women’s draw, dropped two spots after a “strong” Cincinnati run. Fonseca’s her countryman, but he’s busy dodging Miomir Kecmanovic.
- Kartal’s résumé? She’s 51st but beat Yue Yuan in Cleveland. That’s it. Haddad’s been here before (she’s a 2023 junior US Open champ).
Player Props?
None listed, but I’ll invent one for fun: “Will Haddad Maia check her live ranking mid-match?”
- Yes: 1.5 odds (she’s terrified of falling further).
- No: 2.0 (optimistic, but this is tennis, not a spreadsheet).
Prediction: Haddad wins 6-3, 6-4, but not before Kartal naps a 5-0 lead in the second set. The Over 22.5 games line? Please. This’ll be a snoozefest unless someone starts serving with their other arm.
“I’m not favored—I’m expected. But hey, at least I’m not João Fonseca, trying to play Kecmanovic on a court where the lines are drawn in Serbian.” — Beatriz Haddad Maia, probably.
Created: Aug. 26, 2025, 10:35 a.m. GMT