Prop Bets: Tallison Teixeira VS Derrick Lewis 2025-07-12

UFC Fight Night Prediction: Tallison Teixeira vs. Derrick Lewis
The Ultimate "Old Man Yells at Cloud" Fight

The Setup:
Tallison Teixeira (25, 8-0, 100% finish rate) enters as the prohibitive favorite, perched atop the odds like a caffeinated rooster. His resume? A perfect 8-0 with zero opponents surviving Round 1. Meanwhile, Derrick Lewis (40, 22-11, 14 KOs) is the "veteran" here, though his last eight fights include five losses and a concerning habit of exiting via TKO like a contestant on Wheel of Fortune who bet everything on ‘Z’.

The Odds Breakdown:
- Teixeira (-600 to -700): Implied probability of ~75-80% to win. Bookmakers are so confident, they’re basically handing out free Teixeira bobbleheads.
- Lewis (+500 to +600): Implied probability of ~25-33%. A gamble on nostalgia, like betting your grandpa’s “I used to be a gym rat” stories will win a sparring match.

Why Teixeira?
He’s the MMA equivalent of a college freshman acing a high school pop quiz. Deadspin’s analysis isn’t wrong—Lewis’s last five losses read like a horror movie: “Oh no, here comes the first round… again.” Teixeira’s never fought past 1:59, so his cardio’s a mystery, but hey, when you’re 25 and your opponent’s 40, aging is the only thing that’s going the distance.

Why Lewis?
Covers.com’s “death-touch power” line is a red flag masquerading as a strength. Lewis did knock out Rodrigo Nascimento recently, but let’s be real: Nascimento’s a human version of a “Do Not Disturb” sign. The KO/TKO prop bet (payouts +210) is tempting if you fancy Lewis landing a haymaker in Round 2, but his “power” might just power his retirement.

Prop Bets to Note:
- Total Rounds Over/Under 1.5:
- Over 1.5 (2.6–2.74 odds): A 37% implied chance. Betting on this is like predicting a squirrel will finish a marathon—it’s theoretically possible, but don’t bet your firstborn.
- Under 1.5 (-400 to -500): Implied 80% chance. Teixeira’s track record makes this the safest bet since “buying a life insurance policy after a nap.”

Final Verdict:
Teixeira’s a 25-year-old finish machine; Lewis is a 40-year-old trying to defy time like a TikTok influencer. The UFC wants to anoint Teixeira as their next heavyweight star, and the odds reflect that. Unless Lewis pulls a Rocky and lands a career-defining punch (unlikely, given his recent form), this will be a TKO or submission before the first commercial break.

Pick: Teixeira via TKO/R1.5. Lewis’s “power” will power Teixeira’s bank account.

Disclaimer: This prediction is not financial advice. If you bet on Lewis, expect results similar to betting on a “get rich quick” scheme on Facebook. 🥊💸

Created: July 12, 2025, 11:32 p.m. GMT