Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers VS Los Angeles Rams 2025-11-23

Buccaneers vs. Rams: A Tale of Two QBs and a Total That’s Not Total Nonsense

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) and Los Angeles Rams (8-2) clash on Sunday Night Football, and if you thought this would be a low-scoring snoozefest, the odds are here to slap you awake. The Rams are a 7-point home favorite (-7, 1.87 decimal) with implied probabilities hovering around 76-78% (thanks to decimal math: 1/1.27 ≈ 78.7%), while the Bucs (+7, 3.8-4.0) are clinging to hope like a lost bettor at a blackjack table. The total is 49.5 points, and the Over is priced at +185 (FanDuel), which is basically a “buy low” opportunity for anyone who’s seen Baker Mayfield’s arm.

Why the Over is a Lock (or a Loaded Question?)
Mayfield, the Bucs’ QB1, is projected to throw for 291 yards by SportsLine’s AI, which is 48.5 yards more than the Rams’ pass defense allows per game. The Rams rank 13th in pass defense, allowing 222.3 yards per game, and Mayfield has eclipsed 243 yards in four of his last seven games. If the Bucs’ run defense (5th in the league) forces the Rams into a pass-heavy script, look out—this could be a fireworks show. The Over 49.5 is now the key total, and with Mayfield’s projected 263.2-yard EV (per Covers) and Stafford’s Davante Adams (7 TDs in four games) licking his chops, the Over is a five-star play.

Player Props: Mayfield’s Yards vs. Your Sanity
The most tantalizing prop is Baker Mayfield Over 242.5 passing yards (-114). The math? Mayfield’s 282.2-yard average against top-third defenses in his last four games vs. a Rams unit that’s porous enough to let him hit 243+ yards. Take the Over and tell your friends you “knew Stafford would be busy too.”

The Verdict
The Rams are favored, but not by enough. The Bucs’ run defense could force Stafford into a high-volume night (he’s got chemistry with Adams, after all), and Mayfield’s arm is too much for L.A.’s secondary. This game is a 26-23 Over in a parallel universe, but in reality? 49.5 is a low bar—grab the Over and enjoy the chaos.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 27, Bucs 22 (Under 49.5? No way. Over 49.5? Absolutely.)

Key Bets: Over 49.5 (+185), Mayfield Over 242.5 (-114).

Note: If you bet the Rams -7, you’re either a masochist or a mathlete. Do yourself a favor and take the points. 🏈

Created: Nov. 24, 2025, 12:24 a.m. GMT