Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Rays VS Baltimore Orioles 2025-09-23
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: A Home Run or a Homer?
September 23, 2025 | 7:35 PM ET | Implied Probabilities Based on Odds
The Verdict:
The Rays (-115) are favorites to win this matchup, and honestly? They should be. The Orioles (44.9% win rate as underdogs this season) are like a broken bat—they might surprise you, but only if you’re paying attention to the wrong inning. Tampa’s offense (4.5 R/G) and league-best .252 BA give them a 56.9% implied chance to win, while Baltimore’s 4.61 ERA (24th in MLB) makes their 43.1% chance look like a math problem.
Key Prop to Bet: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Home Runs (+270)
The 22-year-old Rays third baseman has 44 HRs this season (100th percentile in MLB bat speed) and is priced at +270 to go deep. With Orioles starter Dean Kremer (3.77 ERA, 164 Ks) on the mound, Caminero’s implied probability of a HR is 2.94% (100 / (270 + 100)). That’s like flipping a coin… if the coin was weighted, illegal, and had a 97.06% chance of landing on tails. Take the Over—Caminero’s not hitting a HR? Unbelievable.
Why the Rays Win:
- Ryan Pepiot (3.77 ERA) vs. a Baltimore lineup that averages just 1.1 HR/G. Pepiot’s 164 Ks will keep the Orioles’ power-hungry bats in check.
- Yandy Diaz (+164 to Over 1.5 hits) and Josh Lowe (-227 to Over 0.5 hits) form a 1-2 punch that’ll exploit Kremer’s 3.77 ERA.
Why the Orioles Might Not:
- Their lineup (24th in HRs, 24th in ERA) is a statistical paradox. They’ll need a miracle (or a 5-run 9th) to pull off the upset.
Final Prediction:
Rays 5, Orioles 2 (Over 8.5 Runs at -110 implied). Caminero homers. The Orioles’ chances? Slim, but not zero—unless you ask their bullpen.
Bonus Prop to Avoid: Orioles Under 1.5 Runs (-300). Let’s not jinx it.
“The difference between a home run and a strikeout is just a few degrees of separation… and a lot of bat speed.” — Me, probably.
Created: Sept. 23, 2025, 3:17 p.m. GMT