Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Rays VS Chicago Cubs 2025-09-13
The Cubs vs. Rays Showdown: A Statistical Circus in Wrigleyville
The Chicago Cubs (83-63) host the Tampa Bay Rays (72-74) on September 13, 2025, in a matchup that’s less a baseball game and more of a statistical juggling act. The Cubs, riding a 62.3% win rate as favorites this season, are favored at -115 to -125 across bookmakers, while the Rays cling to underdog status at +105 to +110. The total runs line sits at 8.5, which feels about right given the Cubs’ MLB-8th ranked offense (4.9 R/G) and the Rays’ 11th-best ERA (3.88). Let’s break it down with the precision of a perfectly executed sacrifice bunt.
The Pitching Matchup: A Tale of Two ERAs
- Colin Rea (Cubs): The Cubs’ righty has a 4.20 ERA, which is… respectable? He’ll need to contain Tampa’s potent lineup, which leads the AL in home runs (166).
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): The Rays’ starter sports a 3.88 ERA but has allowed 1.5 HRs per game. If you’re betting on Rasmussen to strike out >4.5 batters (-105 to -110), you’re banking on him avoiding a repeat of his April nightmare start against the Yankees.
Prop Pick: Will Rasmussen or Rea walk more than 1.5 batters? Both have pedestrian control (Rea: 3.1 BB/9, Rasmussen: 3.3 BB/9). Bet the Under if you value your sanity.
Hitting Heroes and Prop Bets to Watch
The Cubs’ offense is a well-oiled machine, led by Nico Hoerner (.294 AVG) and Ian Happ (338 OBP). But the real prop gem? Ian Happ O/U 1.5 hits (-130 to -140). Why? Because Happ’s .338 OBP makes him a lock to get on base… unless he’s facing a relief pitcher named “Chaos.”
For the Rays, Junior Caminero (42 HRs) is the big threat. His hit prop is set at 1.5 (-157 to -165). Take the Over—he’s hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games. But if you’re feeling spicy, try Caminero HR O/U 0.5 (+400 to +425). It’s a long shot, but hey, September is for miracles (and late-season power surges).
The Dark Horses
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): His HR prop is 0.5 (+400). Bet the Under unless you’ve seen his September slump.
- Yandy Diaz (Rays): The Over 1.5 hits line (-145 to -155) is tempting, but Diaz’s .292 AVG suggests he’ll at least reach base.
Why the Rays Might Win
They have Drew Rasmussen, who’s 10-5 on the year. And let’s be real: the Cubs’ bullpen has a 4.55 ERA. If Tampa’s bats wake up (they’ve hit 166 HRs, after all), this could get ugly for Chicago.
Final Prediction
The Cubs win 5-3, thanks to a Nico Hoerner double (his 2B prop is -135 to -145) and a Seiya Suzuki groundout to end the game. The total unders 8.5, because nothing says “thrilling September baseball” like a pitcher’s duel.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Rays 3.
Prop to Cash: Ian Happ Over 1.5 hits (-140). Because “Hoerner gets the RBI single, Suzuki strikes out, and Happ… somehow gets a hit.”
Tip your cap, bet your chips, and hope for a rain delay. The odds are in the house’s favor, but so are the Cubs. 🎩⚾
Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 4 p.m. GMT