Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Rays VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-07-27
Rays vs. Reds: A Tale of Two Runners-Up
July 27, 2025 – Implied Probabilities, Props, and Why This Game Feels Like a Math Test
The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) and Cincinnati Reds (+105) meet in a battle of "Who’s Less Likely to Embarrass Themselves?" The moneyline implies the Rays have a 52% chance to win, while the Reds cling to a 49% shot—because why not give underdogs a fighting chance? The total is set at 9.5 runs, which feels like the sportsbook’s way of saying, “We have no idea who’s scoring.”
Pitcher Props: A Dance of Doomsday
- Shane Baz (Rays): Over 5.5 strikeouts (-102) vs. Under (-130). The math says Baz needs to strike out 6 batters to satisfy the Over, which is… achievable? Let’s hope he doesn’t channel his inner "mystery meat" and fold after 5.
- Brady Singer (Rays): Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Under (-130). Singer’s got a 44% implied chance to K 5+ batters. If he fails, the Reds’ offense might need to summon a time machine to score runs.
Hitter Props: A Gamble on Hype
- Yandy Diaz (Rays): Over 0.5 doubles (+330). At +330, this is the sportsbook’s way of saying, “We’re very sure Diaz won’t double.” His implied odds? Just 23%. Bet it only if you enjoy losing money slowly.
- Elly De La Cruz (Rays): Over 0.5 home runs (+360). The line’s so low, it’s basically betting De La Cruz won’t accidentally hit a homer between pitches. Implied chance? 21%. Great if you’re into futility.
Why This Game Will Go 12 Innings
The Rays average 4.7 runs per game (10th in MLB), while the Reds score 4.6 runs (11th). Combined, they’re on pace for a 9-run game—right at the total. But with a 1.5-run spread favoring Tampa, expect a nail-biter where the Reds pull off an underdog win only if they hit 3 HRs and Baz implodes.
Final Verdict
Pick: Reds +1.5 and Over 9.5 (-110). Because why not back the team with the higher implied run total (4.6 vs. 4.7) and a spread that’s basically “plus a freebie”? It’s a 50-50 proposition where “50” means “we have no clue.”
Prop Play: Take Under 5.5 strikeouts for Baz (-130). He’s got a 57% implied chance to strike out 5 or fewer. If you’re betting on a pitcher not to K 6 batters, you’re already in the right mindset for this game.
Final Score Prediction: Reds 5, Rays 4 in 10 innings. Because baseball hates you, and this game is a metaphor for life.
Created: July 27, 2025, 4:25 a.m. GMT