Prop Bets: Tommy Paul VS Alexander Bublik 2025-08-30
Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Bublik: A Clash of Counterpuncher and Court Magician
The US Open’s second-round showdown between Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik is like a battle between a methodical librarian and a flamboyant magician—only the librarian (Paul) has a 3-0 edge in their ATP meetings, and the magician (Bublik) keeps pulling rabbits out of his… well, his backhand slice.
The Stats:
- Paul’s résumé: 2025 hardcourt hero, with a 7-5 five-set thriller over Nuno Borges and a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 rout of Elmer Moller. He’s a career Grand Slam counterpuncher, relying on lateral movement and defensive grit.
- Bublik’s résumé: 2025 title machine (Terra Wortmann, Swiss Open) and a US Open arrival so smooth, he’s already dispatched Marin Cilic (6-4, 6-1, 6-4) like he’s unbuttoning a shirt. His 14-handicap spread (-1.5 games) suggests he’s here to play and win.
The Odds (via BetMGM and Co.):
- Moneyline: Bublik at -215 (implied 68.2% chance), Paul at +205 (31.7%).
- Spread: Bublik -1.5 (-150), Paul +1.5 (+130).
- Total Games: 40.5 (Over: -200, Under: +160).
Why Paul Should Win:
He’s 3-0 against Bublik, including a 2024 Wimbledon takedown where Bublik double-faulted more than a Kazakhstan winter. Paul’s New York form? A 7-5 thriller in his second match? That’s the kind of “I’ll just casually stroll to the fifth set” energy that wins titles.
Why Bublik Could Win:
Paul’s only 2025 loss came in Cincinnati to Adrian Mannarino, a player with the charisma of a wet sock. Bublik, meanwhile, has a 74% first-serve win rate on hard courts this year and a flair for the dramatic—like the time he beat Jannik Sinner with a backhand that looked like it was drawn by Da Vinci.
Prop Bet Pick:
Over 40.5 Games (+160). Both men have a history of five-setters (Paul’s Borges match went four tiebreaks!), and Bublik’s serve-return game is too explosive to keep this under 41 games.
Final Prediction:
Paul’s counterpunching will stifle Bublik’s creativity unless the Kazakh starts juggling tennis balls mid-point. But let’s be real—Bublik’s flair for the flamboyant could turn this into a five-set circus. Final score: Paul in four, 6-4, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3.
Note: If Bublik pulls off an upset, he’ll probably do it while wearing a hat. You’ve been warned. 🎩🎾
Created: Aug. 30, 2025, 2:10 p.m. GMT